Political Chatter

Non-fashion, non-skirt, non-gender discussions. If your post is related to fashion, skirts or gender, please choose one of the forums above for it.
Post Reply
Orange Apple
Distinguished Member
Posts: 147
Joined: Sat May 21, 2016 4:59 pm
Location: Minnesota, USA

Re: Political Chatter

Post by Orange Apple »

Sinned wrote: My fear is that the result may be inconclusive, like 49%/51% either way and that would be terrible as there would be such a bad feeling on both sides. Really this referendum is a no-win situation when you think about it.
Polls are sometimes wrong, but the ones I have seen indicate that there is no clear consensus. I agree with your no-win assessment.

But here's the worst-case scenario, as was played out here in the US presidential election in 2000 and in the Minnesota governor election in 2008. The technology used to count votes in is not perfect. Even if it is 99% accurate, that means that there is about 40,000 votes of "noise" in the process, assuming that 40 million people vote (population of the UK according to Google is 64.1 million). In both of the US elections mentioned above, the result was lost in the noise. According to the final official result, Franken won in 2008 by 225 votes, a number well within the noise of the voting process.

So what's the process if the vote count is so close that it's not technically possible to determine the outcome? For us, the 2000 presidential election was decided by the Supreme Court and the MN election was certified by a State agency (the Minnesota State Canvassing Board). In both cases there was a long delay in determining the final outcome - more than six months in the case of the State election, during which time our State lost half of its representation in the US Senate.
User avatar
TheSkirtedMan
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed May 29, 2013 6:14 pm
Location: N. Yorkshire England
Contact:

Re: Political Chatter

Post by TheSkirtedMan »

Sinned wrote:I thank you for the link bit Professor Dougan speaks as an academic from a legal point of view and describes the workings of the EU and I have learnt lots of things that I didn't know about the workings. BUT. He glosses over quite a lot and the fact is that although he paints quite a rosy picture, in the practical, as opposed to theoretical situation, the EU is failing, politically and economically. Greece has austerity measures imposed by the EU, mainly Germany contrary to democratically elected local leadership which is producing a virtually destitute population. Other East European counties with very poor economies being allowed to join the Euro when they are patently not ready for it, could be equally disastrous. On the issue of influence I would disagree with him in that because agreement is by majority vote our influence is very little at all and becomes even less with each country that joins. Just look at how Cameron's requirements for staying in were diluted throughout the intensive negotiations and the whole thing is now considered a farce. It would have been in the interests of the EU to have granted some concessions but Cameron couldn't even get half of what was wanted. It is being reported that what agreements he did come out with have as much validity as if they were written on the back of a fag packet. In terms of our attempts at influence at a high level on anything important to us is dismal. In terms of sovereignty he is stating the current position yet it cannot be denied that, even if we don't want to go that route, there is an increasing federalism, overtly discussed by some EU leaders, among the other western European nations that we will eventually have to face, either join or stand back. How far down he federalist route do we have to let the EU go before we make a decision - I don't want to be a member of a federalist union. We seem unable to influence that at all. So whilst I have learnt things it still doesn't change my mind, and you probably wouldn't have expected it to. In his mind it works but he is probably so far involved in the wood of the legal aspects that he can't see the elm forest being subsumed by Dutch Elm Disease. No, not everything is rosy in the EU and about half the country don't like what they see either. Let's just agree to disagree. Drains coffee, says farewell and will STILL vote OUT in the referendum.
I quite agree. I also look for the long term with my decision on Europe. I do not doubt some big steps back for UK but it is down to politicians, industry, us as individuals to work at it. UK is a great nation but it is being suffocated. I'll not repeat my earlier post or add to it except I would not buy a car with a series of problems, patched problems and then take a long journey in it. If Scotland gets another ref on Independence and gets it then that's for the future. Nobody knows the future not Governments and professional bodies who get long term short term and 12 month predictions regularly wrong. Individuals in their own lives cannot predict future and I certainly do not plan on what if but on facts here and now.

This weekend I was talking to chap from the Netherlands. He would vote out, many in Europe sympathise with UK and feel EU is seriously flawed. Netherlands had referendum 6th April 2016 62% not in favour of EU taking in Ukraine. Look up on Internet. Denmark rejected further inclusion of EU court in late 2015. From his friends in europe other contries populations are becoming unhappy with EU as it stands. He was very interesting to talk to, a commercial heavy jet pilot and many years in EU. He would vote out but has no vote on 23rd. For me it is purely the set up of the EU why I vote out. Politically it does not work as one and shows no sign of trying to do so.

An interest report on Radio 4 on 14th June 2016 Today programme between 7.30 am and 8.45 am. Short piece by Gary Klish of Klish and Co. May have spelt name wrong as radio does not provide names in words. An American financier, well regarded in industry and clearly says why UK should leave EU. He also adds world entering recession again as a whole because socities will not embrace change and humans as a whole generally do not like change and remain with the status quo. Nothing has been learnt from the world 2008 finance crisis. The EU is a prime culprit and has never got out of recession since 2008. It is well worth listening to but you must go via BBC IPlayer.
Be yourself because an original is worth more than a copy.
www.theskirtedman.co.uk
Stevie D
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 479
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 9:56 pm
Location: Sheffield, UK

Re: Political Chatter

Post by Stevie D »

Sinned wrote:It has been said that if Scotland has a referendum and votes for independence then we, the rest will have to re-apply for membership as we would become a separate nation and thus may have to also join the euro as a condition of membership. No-one really knows as the situation hasn't arisen yet, but there may be something in the small print. Just as no-one knows what the real practical consequences would be of a Scottish exit, currency, industry, borders and yes, the EU and membership as Scotland being a new country may have to formally apply. Many scenarios as with Britexit but nothing definite. I suppose we will see when it happens.

My fear is that the result may be inconclusive, like 49%/51% either way and that would be terrible as there would be such a bad feeling on both sides. Really this referendum is a no-win situation when you think about it.
For once Dennis, I agree with you, especially about the no-win situation!
Stevie D
(Sheffield, South Yorkshire)
User avatar
Sinned
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 5804
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:28 pm
Location: York, England

Re: Political Chatter

Post by Sinned »

Well our family is off to Jamaica next month as my eldest son is getting married out there. Main batch of dollars bought but we may buy a few more and it WILL be before Thursday, just in case the pessimists are right and the pound drops like a stone, industries cash in their leases, Scotland requests another referendum, Greece riots and the EU implodes. As long as I can get my holiday in I won't care for a few weeks. I hope there isn't a series of recounts and we are waiting for days, weeks for a result.
I believe in offering every assistance short of actual help but then mainly just want to be left to be myself in all my difference and uniqueness.
Orange Apple
Distinguished Member
Posts: 147
Joined: Sat May 21, 2016 4:59 pm
Location: Minnesota, USA

Re: Political Chatter

Post by Orange Apple »

Sinned wrote:Main batch of dollars bought but we may buy a few more and it WILL be before Thursday, just in case the pessimists are right and the pound drops like a stone,
So Murphy's Law suggests that since you've bought your dollars they will be much cheaper after Thursday . . .
dillon
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 2719
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:12 pm
Location: southeast NC coast

Re: Political Chatter

Post by dillon »

My only interest in whether they stay or go is the effect it has in enhancing Putin's power. IMO, if there's a problem with the EU, then leave, and let them fix it. If the EU goes down to Germany, France, The Netherlands, and a bunch of marginal economies, the powers will come together and talk about modifying the problems. It was an overreach for the EU to try and unify everyone under the opinion of a majority, relative to the feelings of the member country populations. No alliance can over come nationalism, whether that movement is based on a country's best interest or not. But that's just a normal effect of European Socialism.
As a matter of fact, the sun DOES shine out of my ...
Ray
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 1894
Joined: Fri Oct 24, 2003 7:03 am
Location: West Midlands, England, UK

Re: Political Chatter

Post by Ray »

@skirtedman, can you explain why, by reference to argument and (where available) facts, why the UK should exit the EU?

Thanks.

Ray
User avatar
Sinned
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 5804
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:28 pm
Location: York, England

Re: Political Chatter

Post by Sinned »

Ray, I think Jeremy, Steve and I have explained our positions and enough has been written on the ins and outs without adding another long tome to this site. I think it's apparent that we have our opinions and discussion here doesn't seem to have changed anyone's - let's leave it at that and see what Thursday brings. We can then gather round on Friday or whenever the result is announced, with our lattes and moan about the end of civilisation, life, the universe and everything. Anyway, what's to say the Vogons aren't out there about to knock through the hyperspace highway and all of this becomes, well, slightly irrelevant.
I believe in offering every assistance short of actual help but then mainly just want to be left to be myself in all my difference and uniqueness.
bobmoore
Active Member
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:45 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: Political Chatter

Post by bobmoore »

Judah14 wrote:
bobmoore wrote:What do you suppose lies in wait for a country in which free speech can be suppressed because someone is, or claims to be, offended? Under what principal can one person muzzle another because of personal preference? Who in their right mind thinks that there is some sort of legal right not to be offended? It is the one who is silenced who is truly offended. I suggest that those who cry and complain, especially anonymously, are the ones out of touch with reality, and catering to them is a slippery slope that can only lead to more suppression of any position or opinion that such people don't like.
Simple solution to that: don't like, don't read.
That works well for reasonable people, but not at all for ideologues and the politically correct. For them it is more about speech supression hidden behind the wall of offence than it is about genuine offensiveness.
"You can lead a liberal to truth, but you can't make it think."
Ray
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 1894
Joined: Fri Oct 24, 2003 7:03 am
Location: West Midlands, England, UK

Re: Political Chatter

Post by Ray »

Sinned wrote:Ray, I think Jeremy, Steve and I have explained our positions and enough has been written on the ins and outs without adding another long tome to this site. I think it's apparent that we have our opinions and discussion here doesn't seem to have changed anyone's - let's leave it at that and see what Thursday brings. We can then gather round on Friday or whenever the result is announced, with our lattes and moan about the end of civilisation, life, the universe and everything. Anyway, what's to say the Vogons aren't out there about to knock through the hyperspace highway and all of this becomes, well, slightly irrelevant.
I was merely curious about fact or logic based arguments, which I could not see from previous posts. If there is no more information to come, then I'm not going to add to the discourse by pressing aggressively for it.

Just one little comment about a previous post on HS2. It's not about speed. That's a by-product. It's about capacity.
dillon
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 2719
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:12 pm
Location: southeast NC coast

Re: Political Chatter

Post by dillon »

bobmoore wrote:What do you suppose lies in wait for a country in which free speech can be suppressed because someone is, or claims to be, offended? Under what principal can one person muzzle another because of personal preference? Who in their right mind thinks that there is some sort of legal right not to be offended? It is the one who is silenced who is truly offended. I suggest that those who cry and complain, especially anonymously, are the ones out of touch with reality, and catering to them is a slippery slope that can only lead to more suppression of any position or opinion that such people don't like.
I'm perfectly fine with anyone expressing their opinion, as long as they don't whine when I give them a face-full of it right back! :twisted: I have no problem with pissin' on anyone's campfire...
As a matter of fact, the sun DOES shine out of my ...
bobmoore
Active Member
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:45 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: Political Chatter

Post by bobmoore »

dillon wrote:
bobmoore wrote:What do you suppose lies in wait for a country in which free speech can be suppressed because someone is, or claims to be, offended? Under what principal can one person muzzle another because of personal preference? Who in their right mind thinks that there is some sort of legal right not to be offended? It is the one who is silenced who is truly offended. I suggest that those who cry and complain, especially anonymously, are the ones out of touch with reality, and catering to them is a slippery slope that can only lead to more suppression of any position or opinion that such people don't like.
I'm perfectly fine with anyone expressing their opinion, as long as they don't whine when I give them a face-full of it right back! :twisted: I have no problem with pissin' on anyone's campfire...
Me either. But some, being unable to deal with any opposition at all, will cry and moan about being offended when their real problem is an inability to deal with anyone who disagrees or points out problems....
"You can lead a liberal to truth, but you can't make it think."
User avatar
TheSkirtedMan
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 273
Joined: Wed May 29, 2013 6:14 pm
Location: N. Yorkshire England
Contact:

Re: Political Chatter

Post by TheSkirtedMan »

Sinned wrote:Ray, I think Jeremy, Steve and I have explained our positions and enough has been written on the ins and outs without adding another long tome to this site. I think it's apparent that we have our opinions and discussion here doesn't seem to have changed anyone's - let's leave it at that and see what Thursday brings. We can then gather round on Friday or whenever the result is announced, with our lattes and moan about the end of civilisation, life, the universe and everything. Anyway, what's to say the Vogons aren't out there about to knock through the hyperspace highway and all of this becomes, well, slightly irrelevant.
I completely agree with you Dennis.

For me this subject needs no discussion after 23rd. Decision will have been made, the path choosen and needs embracing by all. There will be no referendum later for either side.

In the absense of another voting opportunity I will work with what is decided, good, bad or indifferent, that's democracy, freedom and liberty, items fought for by so many who gave their lives in wars over the last 100 years. The decision will need embracing and moving forward as a country.
Be yourself because an original is worth more than a copy.
www.theskirtedman.co.uk
User avatar
Uncle Al
Moderator
Posts: 4351
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 10:07 pm
Location: Duncanville, TX USA

Re: Political Chatter

Post by Uncle Al »

Dennis,

May I extend my heartfelt best wishes for your son's up-coming nuptials.
My he and his bride have many happy years together :D

Uncle Al
:mrgreen: :ugeek: :mrgreen:
Kilted Organist/Musician
Grand Musician of the Grand Lodge, I.O.O.F. of Texas 2008-2025
When asked 'Why the Kilt?'
I respond-The why is F.T.H.O.I. (For The H--- Of It)
User avatar
Sinned
Member Extraordinaire
Posts: 5804
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 5:28 pm
Location: York, England

Re: Political Chatter

Post by Sinned »

Thank you UA. As I have said before in many ways they are polar opposites. He left school with a few GCSEs and for many years drifted a little aimlessly but is a practical person and good with his hands. She is very bright with two degrees but they both have a great sense of humour and seem genuinely fond of each other. She is blind and has been from birth but that has not stopped her from wing-walking, driving a car at nearly 100 mph on an airfield circuit and travelling to America, Australia, Nepal and Thailand. Somehow the event was very far away but is now getting so close.
I believe in offering every assistance short of actual help but then mainly just want to be left to be myself in all my difference and uniqueness.
Post Reply