Half a century

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crfriend
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Re: Half a century

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Grok wrote:I understand that the Russian economy is currently being subsidized by exports of oil and gas.
Economies, in general, are supported by producing things that other economies are willing to purchase for a price. If that happens to be oil and gas, then so be it.
I once read a study about possibilities for the Energia. One would be to launch a cosmonaut on a flyby of the planet Venus. The mission would last about a year (minimizing the effects of weightlessness) and would be easier and cheaper than, say, landing a person on Mars.
Even though I am an ardent supporter of manned spaceflight, I cannot imagine a more wasteful use of time, effort, and money than manning a fly-by. Think about it for a moment: six months out and six months back for a few hours of excitement and real work during the encounter phase. That's what robots are for (and I find myself arguing Milfmog's position). If the mission was an orbital insertion and establishment of an orbital platform which would have a lifetime of some years I could make the argument for manning it, but not for a simple fly-by. Even Apollo VIII was an orbital-insertion mission and a close to all-up test of the machinery and human factors involved.
But, of course, this would nevertheless be a space spectacular. Without the ideological baggage of the Space Race, it might expand the imaginations of young people in different countries.
Without a clear and obvious need for manning the thing, I'd posit that it would be just one more audacious stunt. The technology is there to do the thing, but what of the reason for doing it?
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Re: Half a century

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I must admit that although I pursue astronomy and have had an avid interest in all things pertaining to space flight I had never even heard of this 'Energia' proposed manned flight past Venus. On the face of it, it would have been totally daft from every point of view. How would they have perswaded any cosmonaut to actually fly on the thing? Look what the robotic Cassini-Huygens mission to Saturn/Titan is still achieving!
Nowadays the big decider is finance, or the lack of it. Sending people out into space assumes that they will be ably to carry out functions that mere machines cannot, which of course they did on the moon.
The obvious next big adventure is Mars, of course. To get there and back will certainly require global co-operation and finance, so the actual ethnic/racial make up of any crew can only be guessed at, and whether English will be the language spoken on board is also anybody's guess.
Perhaps I won't live to see it.

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Re: Half a century

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Kirbstone wrote:I must admit that although I pursue astronomy and have had an avid interest in all things pertaining to space flight I had never even heard of this 'Energia' proposed manned flight past Venus.
I, too, tend to follow space exploration fairly closely, and have a very good friend who as a professional astronomer and Visiting Scholar at Brown University in Providence who has access to the very latest information in the field, and was unaware that there was a manned Energia mission even tentatively put forward. Certainly Energia was designed to be man-rated as one of intended payloads was the Soviet shuttle orbiter, but there hasn't been a launch of the booster system in a good many years.
On the face of it, [a manned Venusian flyby] would have been totally daft from every point of view. How would they have perswaded any cosmonaut to actually fly on the thing? Look what the robotic Cassini-Huygens mission to Saturn/Titan is still achieving!
Indeed, and the gap between what requires human hands-on activity and what robots can accomplish is narrowing continuously; the very interesting dual-rover missions to Mars point that up, and of course there's the ongoing saga of Cassini/Huygens and the twin Voyagers which are rapidly heading out of our solar system altogether.
.
The obvious next big adventure is Mars, of course. To get there and back will certainly require global co-operation and finance, so the actual ethnic/racial make up of any crew can only be guessed at, and whether English will be the language spoken on board is also anybody's guess.
This assumes that we as a species can climb out of the economic morass that we're currently in, and that some parties are actively trying to make the problem worse. If such a mission flies, it almost certainly will not be of European or US -- or possibly even western -- makeup.
Perhaps I won't live to see it.
Nor, probably, I.
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Re: Half a century

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I recall coming across a comment that the ancient Hittites had an outlook similar to the modern West. If that is the case, I suspect that their Middle Kingdom is analogous to the present.
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Re: Half a century

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Hittite society was at a low ebb, but after a century of decline their society experienced something of a revival.

I suspect that we are in a similar phase of decline, at an early stage. When might our descendants see an Era of Western Revival? I imagine the early 22nd century.
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Re: Half a century

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Grok wrote: Thu Aug 28, 2025 10:08 pmI suspect that we are in a similar phase of decline, at an early stage. When might our descendants see an Era of Western Revival? I imagine the early 22nd century.
It depends on where on the planet you are and what the state of civilisation in that place is. The United States is already past the point of no return thanks to the deliberate scuttling of the "little economy" (Main Street was purposely sunk; Wall Street boomed) in 2020. Russia is similarly finished having an economy substantially the same and an identical system of government as that of the US at the moment. The best hope seems to be the EU if they can survive the collapse of the two old superpowers.

The critical point is going to be whether if the EU if it survives the economic collapse it can survive the ecological damage done mostly by the USA in the past 40 years. It'll be the "Low Countries" that will feel the worst effects because of the flooding from rising sea level. We had a chance to do something but Big Money balked and maintained the status quo. Their children and grandchildren will pay the price dearly.

So, things from here look pretty bleak. There's not much to get excited about and certainly very little to look forward to, skirts or no.
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Re: Half a century

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Looking back, towards the 1960s, the 1970s.... An era that seemed so illuminating, now seems like a flash in the pan. By the time we got to the '80s that period's promise was fading rapidly.
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Re: Half a century

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Grok wrote: Fri Aug 29, 2025 12:56 amLooking back, towards the 1960s, the 1970s.... An era that seemed so illuminating, now seems like a flash in the pan. By the time we got to the '80s that period's promise was fading rapidly.
It's sadder than a "flash in the pan", what we lived through (many of us) may well have been the final flowering of self-expression before it was ground to nothing beneath the jackbooted heel of neoconservatism. The death-rattle first sounded in 1980, and by 2000 was dead on the table. We've not recovered, and likely never will so profound the insult to a once vibrant "organism" has been.

And we only have ourselves to blame. We lost sight of the goal, wandered aimlessly, and watched in apathy as the vote ushered in the vile poison that did us in. We deserve the fate we get.

I just hope Europe realises precisely how weak republics are and how easy they are to overthrow and their electorates stay vigilant and engaged in the process; else they will share the same fate as Rome, Germany in the 30, the USSR, and the United States. Apathy == death.
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Re: Half a century

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crfriend wrote: Fri Aug 29, 2025 12:02 pm
It's sadder than a "flash in the pan", what we lived through (many of us) may well have been the final flowering of self-expression before it was ground to nothing beneath the jackbooted heel of neoconservatism. The death-rattle first sounded in 1980, and by 2000 was dead on the table. We've not recovered, and likely never will so profound the insult to a once vibrant "organism" has been.
Can't say whether or not society will ever experience a similar period, someday. Maybe, but I have no reason to expect to see a similar time during the rest of my life.

At this late date (I am 68 years old), the best I can hope for is to make my limited future comfortable for myself, and enjoy a degree of self expression as best I can.
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