Weather Map forcast for Hurricane Sandy

[Uncle Al]

This is a "Cheeky" weather forcast.
Enjoy

Hurricane Sandy Forcast 2012-10-26.jpg

Uncle Al

[Uncle Al]

Now, a REAL forcast map

A real Hurricane forcast map 2012-10-27.jpg

Our thoughts and prayers go to all people that have been, are being, or will be affected
by this storm.

Uncle Al

[crfriend]

Now, a REAL forcast map

OK, now it's starting to look a bit more "normal". The tracking that the computers have been postulating over the past few days have been, shall we say, "incredible" based on what's known of these storms. At least now the general behaviour is a bit more "on track" with the characteristic recurve taking place once inland.

New England isn't out of the woods by a longshot yet. If that westward jog doesn't happen there's still a good chance for a repeat of 1938's "Long Island Express" that saw a storm with an 80 MPH forward velocity (added to its own cyclonic velocity) kick the stuffing out of New England. There are still folks alive who remember that one (No, I am not one of them.) and pictures of the destruction abound. It was not a good time, and if the likes of that happen today I rather doubt we could rebuild -- the money is no longer available.

I'd rather see the thing head out to sea and dissipate in the North Atlantic, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

Of course there was that one from earlier this year that coursed around in circles for about a week defying all logic and experience. It's been a strange year, and it'll be interesting to see how these storms behave in the warmer years to come.

[Ray]

Whats the problem with 75mph winds? That's a nasty gale but hardly worrying. In Scotland we get them quite often and you lose the odd roof tile but that's it.

I think this is a storm in a teacup to use an appropriate metaphor but obviously I still want people to be safe.

[Big and Bashful]

Whats the problem with 75mph winds? That's a nasty gale but hardly worrying. In Scotland we get them quite often and you lose the odd roof tile but that's it.

I think this is a storm in a teacup to use an appropriate metaphor but obviously I still want people to be safe.

80 mph forward velocity, added to the cyclonic whirly bit = lots of velocity, more than I could shake a stick at. 80 knots is just the speed the storm cell is moving, even I understand that and I have been drinking! Add the speed of the twiddle and it will probably exceed the 110 knots which is the highest sustained speed I have seen here on the Scottish West coast, we don't get hurricanes by the way, just storms. Take our Winter weather, deploy it in the South of England and they would bleat about a hurricane! but as long as it only hits Scotland it doesn't get a mention. Oops, sorry, the wine is seeping out of my fingers again, better stop!

[Ray]

Oops! I thought that the velocity vectors were indicative wind speed. You make really good points. No wonder this is being taken seriously if speeds > 110kts.

I agree your comments about Scottish v South England weather perception though!

[the_scott_meister]

It's not just the wind that's a factor with this one. It's that at the same time you've got a dry, cold mass of air coming down from Canada. When the warm wet hurricane meets the cold dry Canadian stuff, several things will happen. The cold air will be pushed down and the warm wet air will go up over it, where it will get really cold really fast, and all of the water could fall out of the air as freezing rain, not to mention any swirling vertices from the two airs mixing. If it happens near the coastline you'll still have the winds but less cold air, so less freezing rain. Conversely, if it happens further inland much of the wind will have been dissipated, but it could get more freezing rain. Not saying that all of this is going to happen, but it's a definite possibility.

[Uncle Al]

UPDATE - - - -

The Weather Channel just stated that Virginia is currently having heavy snow.
Thousands of people will be without electricity from Virginia up through Vermont.
The outage could last several weeks. If anyone has a "Deep Freeze" or "freezer",
to set the temp as low as you can and load it up with food & water. Many cities
and towns have mandatory evacuation orders. A report on CNN or MSNBC (don't
remember which) has indicated that the New York City Subway could have up to
a foot of saltwater in the system.

One of the coastal freeways is closed due 1 foot of salt water, and blowing sand,
covering the highway.

The "ESTIMATED" cost of this storm could be between $2.5 - $3 billion in damages.

The U.S. Navy has ordered ALL naval vessels to leave the Norfolk, VA. harbor
and out to sea. Airports along the U.S. east coast have closed, or will be closing SOON.

Hurricane Irene will look like a small storm when compared to Hurricane Sandy.

PLEASE keep our forum members, as well as all people, who live along the Atlantic
coast of the U.S. in your thoughts and prayers. If you can, consider a donation to your
local Red Cross Disaster Relief Fund as a way to help the people in these affected areas.

Thanks

Uncle Al

[crfriend]

[...] A report on CNN or MSNBC (don't remember which) has indicated that the New York City Subway could have up to a foot of saltwater in the system. [...]

The "ESTIMATED" cost of this storm could be between $2.5 - $3 billion in damages. [...]

The U.S. Navy has ordered ALL naval vessels to leave the Norfolk, VA. harbor and out to sea. Airports along the U.S. east coast have closed, or will be closing SOON. [...]

The important thing to recall in this case is that we're dealing with a Category 1 storm -- as far down on the scale as hurricanes rank, and the projections are for further weakening -- including the storm losing its tropical character -- before landfall. Will it make a mess? Sure it'll make a mess, and we'll pick ourselves up and deal with it.

The navy ordering its vessels from harbour to the open ocean in times like this is standard practise. Yes, seas will be high and the sailors will get tossed around a bit, but it's better to toss around in the open ocean than hit other things whilst in harbour.

The "estimated cost" of the storm has vastly more to do with where it's going to be making landfall than anything else; it's coming ashore into a heavily-populated area with a dilapidated infrastructure. In fact, much of the infrastructure hasn't seen any meaningful maintenance in about 30 years and is stretched well beyond its capacity most of the time. Why is it in such poor condition? There's no money available to repair, upgrade, or replace it. The big thing to be worried about is what happens if pieces of it are damaged beyond Band-Aid repair? What do you suppose the replacement cost will be of large chunks of the signalling and switching plant in New York's subways needing to be replaced after innundation in salt water? Or the results of severe damage occuring to any of the refineries on the New Jersey coastline? Or large chunks of the power grid coming down?

[Uncle Al]

I must disagree with you Carl. Yes, the storm is a CAT 1, but at the
highest end of a CAT 1. The weather guessers are now saying that
the winds are increasing and may turn into a CAT 2.

When the hurricane mixes with the cold front & reverse looping Jet Stream,
it will be pulled further in towards the mountainous regions of the Virginia's,
Pennsylvania and New England, resulting in heavy snow for much of the area.

The Governor of New Jersey has asked that the people of N.J. LEAVE the
state, to get as far inland as possible.

The President just held a press conference outlining the status of help
for the people affected by the storm. He said that there already are
36,000 people without electricity, with many more to come.
Do not under-estimate this storm.

The storm surge could have waves as high as 20+ feet.

The main thing is to be safe. "Things" can be replaced, people can't.

Uncle Al

[crfriend]

The Governor of New Jersey has asked that the people of N.J. LEAVE the state, to get as far inland as possible.

I don't know that the governor of New Jersey has recommended that people leave the state, although I would but for other reasons, but rather that they get away from the shore. The same warnings are in effect for the lower-lying areas of New York City, which is wise.

The storm surge could have waves as high as 20+ feet.

The main thing is to be safe. "Things" can be replaced, people can't.

Indeed. At about 600' above sea level, Sapphire and I are not particularly worried about storm surge, but a cousin of hers on the nothern shore of Long Island (New York) is, and is likely under a mandatory evacuation notice.

Here at the moment, we are all battened down and seeing 40-45 knot gusts, but not a whole lot of rain. The power is still on, but we are at the mercy of The Grid and who knows when that'll quit. Windows (and storm windows) are all fastened securely, doors are tightly closed, and the house is performing well. All the comms gear has a full charge and we have torches/flashlights if the need arises. We also have books to keep ourselves amused if we go medieval for a bit.

I feel for those less well off, and especially for the crew and passengers of the HMS Bounty replica sunk off the North Carolina coast with two missing.