Corona Virus

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crfriend
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by crfriend »

beachlion wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 4:39 pm
I think the absolute numbers of cases with the virus are more telling than the numbers per capita.
With all due respect, I disagree with you here. The only way to accurately compare the prevalence of the disease in different countries is to do so on a "per n-thousand" ratio; otherwise countries with large populations will handily outweigh those with small ones. Similarly, the absolute number of infections in a population is rather meaningless without knowledge of the rate of infection, meaning the number of new ones per unit of time (typically a day) as well as the reporting-area's population. This was one of the infuriating things about the way my state was reporting things early on, and I had to resort to mining proprietary document formats to generate the rate of infection. At least now they're reporting it.

Here's what Massachusetts looked like yesterday. (Massachusetts is just shy of 6.9 million souls as of 2019.) The shaded map of the place on page six is interesting and shows precisely what a common-sense grasp of the situation would dictate: rural (far western and northwestern Mass) and isolated (islands) are far more lightly hit than densely-populated areas. [0]
The infection is spread from human to human. From patient "zero" the spreading depends on the way people behave. If they take all the measures like distancing, face masks and cleaning surfaces, the spreading will be much slower than without those measures. In heavy populated areas the chance of an infection is much higher than in the country side
Absolutely. If one looks at the rate of infections and the number of infections per thousand one gets a better picture of what's going on. However, notions like rates and ratios don't serve the needs of scare-tactics very well so can be sometimes difficult to get to. But, as with everything else pertaining to statistical analysis, it's wise to not let one get swayed by seemingly out of line numbers. Be wary of the numbers, and be warier still of who is presenting them.
So if we can trust the numbers of other countries, the USA is on top, far ahead of the rest of the world. To counter balance that, the USA is also on top with the number of tests.
The USA is the third most populous nation on the planet, so of course the numbers of anything are going to be large by comparison. One cannot compare absolute numbers without "levelling the playing field" using maths.


[0] For reference, Boston is Suffolk County, Middlesex is largely a suburb of Boston, at least close in, but also is home to Lowell. The same is true of Essex, but Essex is also home to the city of Lynn and Lawrence. Worcester county has the eponymous City of Worcester in it, and Springfield is located in Hampden County, likely accounting for that outcome. Plymouth County has the cities of Brockton and Plymouth. Bristol County is home to Fall River. Cape Cod has no large cities, nor are there any large cities on the islands nor in the northwest of the state. An interesting correlation is that Lowell, Lynn, Fall River, New Bedford, Springfield, and Lawrence are all in the bottom fifteen wealthiest cities in the state.
Last edited by crfriend on Sun May 17, 2020 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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beachlion
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by beachlion »

Take the USA as is today, take the USA with a rigorous enforced protection with distancing, face masks, quarantaining and testing in place and a third USA where the same population is evenly spread over the surface of the USA, how do you think the numbers will develop on a day to day case?

Case #1 we can see in the news every day.

Case #2 will go as in Taiwan and Germany. The number of cases will be far lower than we see from case #1. The size of the population is only a small part of the problem. It is about containing the spreading.

Case #3 is a matter of how serious people will take the restrictions. The number of cases will depend on how serious people are taking measures. It would be a nice test case to see the relationship between the attitude of the people vs the number of cases.

As far as I can see, in a country big or small, infections start with a number of infected people entering the country. From there the infections spread with a certain speed, depending on the level of protection in place. I don't see how the size of the population has much to do with the rate of spreading. With a larger population there are more people available to infect but the number is still depending on the number of "seeds" and the rate of spreading.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Big and Bashful »

A larger population will generate more "seeds" as there are more people, more people travelling, more people bringing the virus into the country and mixing in more airports and on more planes. Total number of cases is meaningless, you need to look at the percentages infected, dying etc. not total numbers. Unfortunately different countries are gathering their figures in different ways that mean you cannot do a direct comparison with any degree of accuracy. In the UK our figures initially only covered deaths in hospitals, then eventually they managed to collect care home cases and deaths and add them to the mix. No doubt other countries have their own idiosyncro (No, I have officially forgotten how to spell!) things skewing their figures.
So, to compare different countries, you need to know the total population, the total cases (over time) and the total COVID related deaths, figures gathered the same way, with the same exceptions, or the figures are meaningless.
Exceptions, ah, exceptions; just what is a COVID death? is a 95 year old who dies in hospital who has a COVID infection a COVID death? or and old age normal death thing? Is a sixty year old terminal cancer patient who has COVID when they die a COVID death, or a cancer death? No doubt a coroner could coronate things and figure it out but the Health services are a bit preoccupied with trying to keep people alive while breathing through nappies and wearing binbags!
Many of the deaths, a high percentage, have pre-existing conditions, which do you include, which do you exclude? To compare different countries every country must gather the statistics the same was or the stats are just meaningless.

Even that horrendous f***wit Trump made a valid point a couple of days ago, as always, he didn't explain it well, what I think he meant was; if you don't do any testing, the number of cases would appear to be zero, the more people you test, the more cases you will find and the worse the apparent situation. I am surprised nobody has presented him with a bucket of sand to stick his head in, preferably after removing it from his body!

This, as always is a personal view and not the official view of the U.K. (Or is it?)
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Re: Corona Virus

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It’s only a matter of time before the Donald thinks of stopping testing altogether. That way the infection rate will drop to zero and the Pandemic will be officially over. Just like climate warming. In time for November.
:roll:

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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmut »

beachlion wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 4:39 pm
I think the absolute numbers of cases with the virus are more telling than the numbers per capita.
I also disagree. The only thing the number of cases tells you is the number of cases; it is far more telling to know the size of the population they came from.

Supposing I told you that my weedkiller was so effective it had killed 100 weeds, wouldn't you want to know how many weeds I had to treat before that number died?
There is no such thing as a normal person, only someone you don't know very well yet.

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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Big and Bashful »

It's amazing how people can manipulate figures, I remember hearing about an advert in the Exchange & Mart (Trading paper for anyone who doesn't know it, like EBay but papery). This person was advertising a 100% efficient fly killer in the agricultural section. This was not inaccurate, however:
What came was a box, in it there were two sticks and a set of instructions. The instructions said "Place fly on stick 'A'. hit with stick 'B'. I don't remember what the cost was, however the description was accurate, if you followed the instructions it would be 100% effective!
It's many years ago now, but it appealed to my sense of humour and I hope they weren't prosecuted for being accurate in their description!
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beachlion
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by beachlion »

pelmut wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 12:47 pm
beachlion wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 4:39 pm
I think the absolute numbers of cases with the virus are more telling than the numbers per capita.
I also disagree. The only thing the number of cases tells you is the number of cases; it is far more telling to know the size of the population they came from.

Supposing I told you that my weedkiller was so effective it had killed 100 weeds, wouldn't you want to know how many weeds I had to treat before that number died?
How did those cases become cases? It all hinges on the measurements the people are taking. The rate of spreading is in a direct relation to the restrictions in place. That is why the R-factor is such an important figure. The number and the reliability of tests is also an important factor. The travellers who became "seeds" travelled because they could or needed it. Strict testing at the points of entry could have contained the spreading. I still see no direct relation between those factors and the size of the population. In a larger population there might be more travellers but it mainly comes down to the need or the will to travel for that person.

And about the weeds. How did they come into your garden? Did you waited too long to start treatment so the weeds could spread all over your lawn? The effect of the weedkiller in relation to the amount of weeds would be telling as an example if we assume the whole population was infected. In your case not only the weeds should be counted but also all the grasses in your lawn.
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pelmut
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmut »

beachlion wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 3:32 pm
And about the weeds. How did they come into your garden? Did you waited too long to start treatment so the weeds could spread all over your lawn? The effect of the weedkiller in relation to the amount of weeds would be telling as an example if we assume the whole population was infected. In your case not only the weeds should be counted but also all the grasses in your lawn.
I have a feeling you are deliberately missing the point:  If my garden were so small that it only contained 100 weeds and the weedkiller got rid of all of them, most people would consider it to have been effective.  If, instead, I had sprayed it liberally over a 30-acre field full of weeds and it had only killed 100 of them, that would be a pretty useless weedkiller.

Telling someone only the number of weeds killed, without relating it to the total population of weeds, is not particularly useful information (unless you are only interested in having 100 dead weeds, regardless of how they were obtained).
There is no such thing as a normal person, only someone you don't know very well yet.

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Re: Corona Virus

Post by partlyscot »

I had thought that we were in stage 1 of relaunch in Alberta, and indeed, we are. But Calgary and Brooks are not fully in that group, because of infection rates. Brooks is I believe because of a hotspot in a local meat packing plant. The deaths are down to ones and twos, pretty much all in old people's support facilities. They have extended testing to the point, you could probably get one if you push for it. You can definitely get tested with symptoms, or contact with confirmed case. Deaths per thousand is not as good as S Korea, but for Calgary, it compares well to say, Germany.
Recent testing is showing results of about 1% positive, the majority with no symptoms, or none the tested were aware of. That's of people who thought they had been in contact for the most part. Travel is permitted within the country, but anyone coming into the country are expected to self isolate for 14 days. They are generally asking people to minimise travel for casual use.

Overall, I'm fairly impressed with the way it's been handled locally, by the govt and most of the people. Anytime I have been out, most are wearing masks if in stores, and social distancing has been well followed. I am beginning to think we might have dodged the worst of it, we will be under some sort of restrictions for some time yet, but with continued monitoring, a decent level of normalcy is on the cards. One big thing from the point of getting people on board, and heading off a large part of the stress, was the quick adoption and simple roll out of the CERB support payment. I think countries which haven't adopted such a strategy will take a bigger economic hit in the long term. It has cost us a fair bit, but I think the faster return to normality will recoup that faster. Not to say it will happen fast, just faster. In many ways, the world has changed, and the changes haven't stopped, but there is the potential for the world to improve in a lot of ways, in addition to the negative changes.

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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Big and Bashful »

Good to see things are improving there, In Scotland the powers that be are being very cautious, I am kind of glad they are, I hope the experts in England aren't jumping the gun with relaxing the restrictions, or if the Government is ignoring the experts to relax things I will not be amused. I see why the Government want people back working, the economic consequences of this lockdown are going to take many years to pay for and the longer the lockdown lasts the worse it will be. As someone employed by the Government who has now been on a wage freeze for what? ten years? we were starting to hope for a payrise to stop us falling even further behind inflation, I think we can kiss that goodbye now! at least I have a job and a wage so I am in a better situation than many! Also as far as I know, no-one I know has it, or has had it, hopefully that won't change!

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Re: Corona Virus

Post by moonshadow »

Today I learned...

Today I leaned an epic way to answer the inevitable question you may run into with a spouse or family member....

"Do you wear skirts?"

"Uh I think... I think for whatever it's worth I'd wear one, I'd have told you that two or three days ago... but... you never asked the question.. so uh.. yeah a lot of front line workers wear skirts, and umm.. you know I think they're really comfortable, so yeah I've been wearing them for about two.... three weeks now...

scuse me... I'm talking...

Yeah they are very cool... comfortable... you know a lot of men
.. a lot of great men.... you know yeah... great powerful men have worn then... mmmmm... you know skirts, I mean look at the Romans.... look at Jesus, so uh, yeah I think these are a good choice for myself... and um... you know millions of Americans... and really people around the world... you know a lot of people, a lot if people say I own a stock in skirt manufacturing... but... no... I just like them... you know..."

Sorry... I saw this and figured "I can adapt this..."

Linked from Fox News.... since we all know and trust them! :alien:

I'm sorry... they guy sounds like I do when I'm trying to sell a dog turd... I laugh... because I can relate... :lol:

What can I say... he's all American... :mrgreen:

The president says he wants us to feel good... skirts make me feel good.... so there...! :P
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crfriend
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by crfriend »

moonshadow wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 10:48 pm
Today I leaned an epic way to answer the inevitable question you may run into with a spouse or family member....

"Do you wear skirts?"
"Yes, I do. What of it?"
Sorry... I saw this and figured "I can adapt this..."
Ugh. I have been ready for a Pence presidency since 2017. The big problem is going to be that the follow-on, if the pattern continues, is going to be even worse.
skirts make me feel good.... so there...! :P
'Nuff said, then! Done. Case closed.
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Big and Bashful
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Big and Bashful »

When asked at work I just said "yes." Of course they asked why, so I said,"Because they are comfortable." and left it at that. I know they haven't forgotten, the technicians obviously are telling new starts because one has asked me since then, I said something along the lines of "Yes, and you always wear shorts whatever the weather, what of it?". I don't wear them to work, but I don't deny it either.
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Big and Bashful
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Big and Bashful »

Back to the corona virus, sounds like the US has actually done rather well compared to most of Europe, including the UK (talking deaths per million). Sounds like our Government did follow scientific advice, but the advice wasn't exactly brilliant!
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Shilo
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Shilo »

There are a lot of factors governing he spread of the virus and as one of the most densely populated countries in Europe, with the busiest transport hubs it could be predicted that we would be more affected than others. When you couple that with the government being slow off the mark it is not surprising that we have been badly affected. By the time they started following scientific advice it was already too late. Boho and Co were distracted by other matters until the end of January.
On A bright note it’s nice to know we’re still number one in the world at something. Even if it is deaths per million.
:roll:

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