Corona Virus

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pelmut
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmut »

crfriend wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 8:51 pm
...
I'm not willing to put it down to conspiracy or outright lying, I think it's simple incompetence and ignorance of the science and statistics.
Ask a mathematician, an accountant and a politician "what is 2+2 ? ".

Mathematician:   "4.000000000000000000000000000000"

Accountant:   "What would you like it to be?"

Politician:   "Whatever I want it to be."
There is no such thing as a normal person, only someone you don't know very well yet.

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Sinned
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Re: Corona Virus

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The capacity for testing seems to be there but if the testing stations are in the wrong place or too far away then this acts as a disincentive to get a test. Plus car-sharing is discouraged and those without a car will find it difficult to get a test done. The postal testing takes more time to cycle. Plus there are people like me who have been secluded since March, show no signs and have no incentive to be tested. Now when they introduce the blood test to determine who has had the virus then I'll stand in line.

As for statistics then there's the maxim by Andrew Lang: "Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination”. Seems right to me especially in these times where you can't prove a darned thing anyway.
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trainspotter48
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by trainspotter48 »

And then there's the saying:-
There are lies, damned lies and statistics!

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crfriend
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Re: Corona Virus

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trainspotter48 wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 11:46 am
And then there's the saying:-
There are lies, damned lies and statistics!
Yes, that's an age-old one -- and, in possibly more situations than not, entirely true.

Statistics can be a very useful tool IF one knows what he's looking at and knows how to use the science.

Much of the problem that we're experiencing today is brought about by political chicanery and general BS overriding scientific fact. You know, things like climate change, a booming economy in the US, and fabric masks. We have exited the world of the rational and now dwell in the realm of fantasy -- unfortunately, some politician's fantasy and not one of our own making or chosing.
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pelmut
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Re: Corona Virus

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Sinned wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 9:26 am
The capacity for testing seems to be there but if the testing stations are in the wrong place or too far away then this acts as a disincentive to get a test.
A friend of mine in a remote part of Cornwall has started to show the symptoms of C 19, so she rang 111 and they told her to book a test.  The bookings can only be made and confirmed by mobile 'phone text messages, but she doesn't have a mobile 'phone, so she can't get herself tested.
There is no such thing as a normal person, only someone you don't know very well yet.

Shilo
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Shilo »

crfriend wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 12:21 pm
trainspotter48 wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 11:46 am
And then there's the saying:-
There are lies, damned lies and statistics!
Yes, that's an age-old one -- and, in possibly more situations than not, entirely true.

Statistics can be a very useful tool IF one knows what he's looking at and things like climate change,.
I agree! Statistics is a very precise branch of mathematics. The problem is most of the population is innumerate and can be easily bambuzled by those who know a little bit about it. I’ve come across the most outrageous examples of this in newspapers, perpetrated by semi educated journalists and even in official government reports. To my shame I’ve even done it myself to comply with requests from senior management.
:roll:

partlyscot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by partlyscot »

The need for testing becomes much more important when you are trying to return to some sort of normalcy. With the variable incubation period, and the ability to transmit the virus before symptoms show, widespread, readily available testing is essential to minimize the chance of another explosion of infections. Combined with mask wearing (to avoid you transmitting the virus you don't know you have) and social distancing, we can avoid spikes in infection.

Without wholesale testing, it becomes impossible to allow any relaxation of isolation measures without unknowingly risking a resurgence of the virus. Any city, town, or even village, that relaxes isolation rules without these measures in place, risks finding out 3 weeks down the line that they've just put a number of their population in hospital, and at risk of death.

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crfriend
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Re: Corona Virus

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partlyscot wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 7:29 pm
[...] Combined with mask wearing (to avoid you transmitting the virus you don't know you have) and social distancing, we can avoid spikes in infection.
The problem with that hypothesis is that during the asymptomatic period when viral-shedding occurs the infected but unaware person's mask is causing a massive spike in his own viral load which can significantly enhance the effects of the disease on him, up to, and including dying from it. In other words, what may have been a moderate case without the added load could now become overwhelming. This is the reason why mask-wearing has been considered potentially harmful and unwise in the past. Now, of course, political posturing has made it mandatory, and so now we'll learn the real results from running an unwitting and absolutely massive (and uncontrolled) experiment. Of course, since there are no controls, the results will be invalid. Nice job politicos. Stick to politics and stay out of science.
Without wholesale testing, it becomes impossible to allow any relaxation of isolation measures without unknowingly risking a resurgence of the virus.
Indeed, and this is precisely why it is so important to test a significant sample of the population not just the folks that are already highly suspected of having the disease. What are the odds of that actually happening?
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partlyscot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by partlyscot »

crfriend wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 8:16 pm
The problem with that hypothesis is that during the asymptomatic period when viral-shedding occurs the infected but unaware person's mask is causing a massive spike in his own viral load which can significantly enhance the effects of the disease on him, up to, and including dying from it. In other words, what may have been a moderate case without the added load could now become overwhelming. This is the reason why mask-wearing has been considered potentially harmful and unwise in the past.
I have not heard of this theory. Do you have a link? Have there been any cases which seem to indicate this?

If you're shedding, you're already infected, can you get more loading from your own shedding? It doesn't sound logical to me, and without some strong evidence, I'd rather not risk unknowingly infecting someone else. Even if true, it's only going to be happening if I'm a risk for others, so I'd rather play it that way if I feel I have to go out, otherwise I'll stay in.

pelmut
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Re: Corona Virus

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Human aerosols aren't the only route of infection, goods, cash and paperwork are all potential carriers.  I leave my post in a metal tray in the front porch for 24 hours before opening it, carry coins and notes in a jar of alcohol and put till receipts in a plastic folder.  When I thought I might be infectious, I would wash my hands before going to the local shops as well as when I returned.  At the supermarket, I have washing facilities in the back of the van, which I use before driving home.

These methods aren't 100% effective, but they are simple ways to make big reductions in the non-aerosol transmission risks.
There is no such thing as a normal person, only someone you don't know very well yet.

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crfriend
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Re: Corona Virus

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partlyscot wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 3:37 am
I have not heard of this theory. Do you have a link? Have there been any cases which seem to indicate this?
This was something that was independently passed to me by my father and my grandfather who were both involved in the health-care field. So, the science is at least 40 - 50 years old. But good science doesn't go stale. It can be disproved if it was flawed or faulty, but most stands to this day. Too, try finding something on-line that hasn't been altered to fit current whim.
If you're shedding, you're already infected, can you get more loading from your own shedding?
Think about the situation for a moment. True, if you are shedding virus you're already infected, but once shed by exhalation, most of the expelled virus is "thrown overboard" into the surrounding atmosphere. However, when wearing a semi-absorbtive mask (i.e. cloth) the virus and humidity aren't. Much is retained in the fabric, so, when the next inhalation cycle comes 'round you re-breathe a large portion of what you otherwise have gotten rid of. Thus you increase the sheer volume of virus you're exposed to.

If you're shedding you're already sick with the thing, but at this point it's a case of how sick are you (i.e. in this case, how much of the lung tissue is involved), and do you have the resilience to recover?
It doesn't sound logical to me, and without some strong evidence, I'd rather not risk unknowingly infecting someone else. Even if true, it's only going to be happening if I'm a risk for others, so I'd rather play it that way if I feel I have to go out, otherwise I'll stay in.
Staying in, or at least at some distance, is the right thing to do, along with common-sense matters like hand-washing. One doesn't have to take it to Lady Macbeth extremes, but washing them before going out and returning home are very effective means of control.
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denimini
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by denimini »

pelmut wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 7:07 am
These methods aren't 100% effective, but they are simple ways to make big reductions in the non-aerosol transmission risks.
If everyone was like you there would be no need to issue compulsory lock-down and social distancing measures.
There were very few restrictions in Sweden but most people did the sensible thing ........... perhaps the legacy of good government; equality in education and health services. They had a bit more infection and death than Australia but hell, a lot less economic and mental health stress ........... we need to add deaths from those causes to be fair.
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crfriend
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Re: Corona Virus

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denimini wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 1:04 pm
[Sweden] had a bit more infection and death than Australia but hell, a lot less economic and mental health stress ........... we need to add deaths from those causes to be fair.
Absolutely. However, I can just about guarantee that won't be done, or likely even seriously looked at for at least a decade.

About a week into this mess I started wondering when we were going to see an uptick in suicides or overtly dangerous behaviours. To date, I haven't heard of anything, but that may be down to nobody watching, noticing, or having the guts to report it. And here we are, nine weeks in and there's no hint of a letup in sight. The mental health toll is going to be staggering. The economy? I'm trying fairly hard not to contemplate that.
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Happy-N-Skirts
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Happy-N-Skirts »

As bad as the economy looks, the stock market keeps going up. I can't figure out why other than anyone who has any money doesn't have anywhere else to put it. I can't think of any other investments and I don't understand why certain stocks; Amazon, Tesla, Google, Apple, etc. have done so well. Some of them are way over 200%. Tesla has a board meeting this month and Amazon has theirs next month.

Can anyone explain this? How long can this go on? Are we expecting a huge crash?

Coder
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Re: Corona Virus

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Happy-N-Skirts wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 11:23 pm
As bad as the economy looks, the stock market keeps going up. I can't figure out why other than anyone who has any money doesn't have anywhere else to put it. I can't think of any other investments and I don't understand why certain stocks; Amazon, Tesla, Google, Apple, etc. have done so well. Some of them are way over 200%. Tesla has a board meeting this month and Amazon has theirs next month.

Can anyone explain this? How long can this go on? Are we expecting a huge crash?
Amazon delivers to the houses in my area (4 houses) about two to three times a day (overstating it a bit). I'm pretty sure they've seen a huge uptick in purchasing.

Google is a services company, and most of their workforce probably works from home occasionally, so they can keep running as long as they have paying customers.

Apple... mail order plus services (Apple TV, photos, storage plans, etc...)

Tesla???? Not sure.

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