Ask a mathematician, an accountant and a politician "what is 2+2 ? ".
Mathematician: "4.000000000000000000000000000000"
Accountant: "What would you like it to be?"
Politician: "Whatever I want it to be."
Ask a mathematician, an accountant and a politician "what is 2+2 ? ".
Yes, that's an age-old one -- and, in possibly more situations than not, entirely true.trainspotter48 wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 11:46 amAnd then there's the saying:-
There are lies, damned lies and statistics!
A friend of mine in a remote part of Cornwall has started to show the symptoms of C 19, so she rang 111 and they told her to book a test. The bookings can only be made and confirmed by mobile 'phone text messages, but she doesn't have a mobile 'phone, so she can't get herself tested.
I agree! Statistics is a very precise branch of mathematics. The problem is most of the population is innumerate and can be easily bambuzled by those who know a little bit about it. I’ve come across the most outrageous examples of this in newspapers, perpetrated by semi educated journalists and even in official government reports. To my shame I’ve even done it myself to comply with requests from senior management.crfriend wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 12:21 pmYes, that's an age-old one -- and, in possibly more situations than not, entirely true.trainspotter48 wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 11:46 amAnd then there's the saying:-
There are lies, damned lies and statistics!
Statistics can be a very useful tool IF one knows what he's looking at and things like climate change,.
The problem with that hypothesis is that during the asymptomatic period when viral-shedding occurs the infected but unaware person's mask is causing a massive spike in his own viral load which can significantly enhance the effects of the disease on him, up to, and including dying from it. In other words, what may have been a moderate case without the added load could now become overwhelming. This is the reason why mask-wearing has been considered potentially harmful and unwise in the past. Now, of course, political posturing has made it mandatory, and so now we'll learn the real results from running an unwitting and absolutely massive (and uncontrolled) experiment. Of course, since there are no controls, the results will be invalid. Nice job politicos. Stick to politics and stay out of science.partlyscot wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 7:29 pm[...] Combined with mask wearing (to avoid you transmitting the virus you don't know you have) and social distancing, we can avoid spikes in infection.
Indeed, and this is precisely why it is so important to test a significant sample of the population not just the folks that are already highly suspected of having the disease. What are the odds of that actually happening?Without wholesale testing, it becomes impossible to allow any relaxation of isolation measures without unknowingly risking a resurgence of the virus.
I have not heard of this theory. Do you have a link? Have there been any cases which seem to indicate this?crfriend wrote: ↑Fri May 08, 2020 8:16 pm The problem with that hypothesis is that during the asymptomatic period when viral-shedding occurs the infected but unaware person's mask is causing a massive spike in his own viral load which can significantly enhance the effects of the disease on him, up to, and including dying from it. In other words, what may have been a moderate case without the added load could now become overwhelming. This is the reason why mask-wearing has been considered potentially harmful and unwise in the past.
This was something that was independently passed to me by my father and my grandfather who were both involved in the health-care field. So, the science is at least 40 - 50 years old. But good science doesn't go stale. It can be disproved if it was flawed or faulty, but most stands to this day. Too, try finding something on-line that hasn't been altered to fit current whim.partlyscot wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 3:37 amI have not heard of this theory. Do you have a link? Have there been any cases which seem to indicate this?
Think about the situation for a moment. True, if you are shedding virus you're already infected, but once shed by exhalation, most of the expelled virus is "thrown overboard" into the surrounding atmosphere. However, when wearing a semi-absorbtive mask (i.e. cloth) the virus and humidity aren't. Much is retained in the fabric, so, when the next inhalation cycle comes 'round you re-breathe a large portion of what you otherwise have gotten rid of. Thus you increase the sheer volume of virus you're exposed to.If you're shedding, you're already infected, can you get more loading from your own shedding?
Staying in, or at least at some distance, is the right thing to do, along with common-sense matters like hand-washing. One doesn't have to take it to Lady Macbeth extremes, but washing them before going out and returning home are very effective means of control.It doesn't sound logical to me, and without some strong evidence, I'd rather not risk unknowingly infecting someone else. Even if true, it's only going to be happening if I'm a risk for others, so I'd rather play it that way if I feel I have to go out, otherwise I'll stay in.
If everyone was like you there would be no need to issue compulsory lock-down and social distancing measures.
Absolutely. However, I can just about guarantee that won't be done, or likely even seriously looked at for at least a decade.
Amazon delivers to the houses in my area (4 houses) about two to three times a day (overstating it a bit). I'm pretty sure they've seen a huge uptick in purchasing.Happy-N-Skirts wrote: ↑Sat May 09, 2020 11:23 pm As bad as the economy looks, the stock market keeps going up. I can't figure out why other than anyone who has any money doesn't have anywhere else to put it. I can't think of any other investments and I don't understand why certain stocks; Amazon, Tesla, Google, Apple, etc. have done so well. Some of them are way over 200%. Tesla has a board meeting this month and Amazon has theirs next month.
Can anyone explain this? How long can this go on? Are we expecting a huge crash?