Corona Virus

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moonshadow
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by moonshadow »

beachlion wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:10 pm I read about the WWI (the Great War) that there was a truce during Christmas. The soldiers in the trenches celebrated X-mas and exchanged wishes to each other. For some reason I feel more or less the same now. You can not leave your house to visit friends or family but have to call them or connect over the Internet. Instead of Christmas in the trenches it is Easter in the houses.
An upside to this situation is it appears that us neighbors are getting a little more connected. Attitudes are generally pleasant with frequent small talk, waving, and plenty of "how y'all doin'"s.

My next door neighbors, the ones with the kids, they are normally home a lot anyway, but everyone has been friendly and we've struck up a few conversations (usually when I'm wearing a skirt). They commented they've noticed I've been home more. Sometimes I just sit on the deck and watch the kids play, it often makes me smile.

My 78 year old neighbor across the street is home a lot more. He often takes trips and cruises with his wife, sometimes being gone for months at a time. Obviously he's been spending a lot more time at home.

We've been hauling his trash for him and helping in little ways. Yesterday whilst I was mowing he brought his riding mower over and said "come on o'er here and let me school ya on this thing" and left the mower for me to finish my yard with.

The other day he brought over some lemon cake for us.

Despite the authorities best efforts, humans do seem to be social animals, and if there is one positive takeaway from the covid19 pandemic of 2020... it's that Moon Shadow seems to have finally broken the ice with his neighbors.

Indeed, even in trying times, life's little pleasures do seem to have a way of surfacing.

Blessed Easter skirt cafe friends!
20200411_190549_resize_23_compress1.jpg
Ps I don't know why the photo is sideways. Click it and view the file to see it right side up. I usually compress files with an app on my phone now as my old desktop has just about bit the dust...

Mobile posting of photos can be.... buggy at times.
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crfriend
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Re: Corona Virus

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Moon,

Thank you so much for that post. It does go to show that sometimes adversity really does bring out the best in people. Bravissimo!

That connection with your neigbours is huge and brilliant. Your actions toward your elder cross-the-street neighbour are exemplary. Fantastic.

Yes, we do need to take solace in the little things in life, and it seems like you have them in spades.
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moonshadow
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Re: Corona Virus

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A pleasure Carl!
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Kirbstone
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Re: Corona Virus

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That's a fine 'Ferrari' you have there, Moon. Bet she does 0 to 100 in four weeks!

MOH over the years has acquired two of those, one she uses exclusively as a tractor and trailer, the other she uses to cut the grass. I don't get a look in.

Tom.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Shilo »

It’s good to note that people seem to be uniting in adversity mostly. We did have a report that some lowlifes have stolen 250 tulips from the local war memorial. Just got back from supermarket where I struck up several conversations with fellow shoppers. All at a respectful distance. Something I would rarely do before. We are still socialising but in different ways
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pelmut
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmut »

The 'good' news from the U.K. is that the number of deaths per day and the number of confirmed cases have both stopped rising exponentially.  Confirmed cases have been rising linearly and deaths in hospital haven't risen significantly during the past few days.  It looks as though we could be approaching the point where the rate of increase of confirmed cases is about to go negative, which means the peak is not far off.

Because of the various delay factors, it is possible that we are even nearer to the peak than the current stats show, but there is no way of knowing that.
There is no such thing as a normal person, only someone you don't know very well yet.
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crfriend
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Re: Corona Virus

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pelmut wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:29 pmThe 'good' news from the U.K. is that the number of deaths per day and the number of confirmed cases have both stopped rising exponentially.  Confirmed cases have been rising linearly and deaths in hospital haven't risen significantly during the past few days.
That's good news indeed, and thanks for sharing it.

Where I am, it looks like we're still not at the peak yet, but may be getting close; it's sort of tough to tell because the rules for reporting the numbers are still in flux, and the immediate intent remains to instill fear in the population so they're be docile. For the past two weeks, Massachusetts has seen a rate-of-infection between the low thousands per day to one very high peak of 2,615 new cases, which I'm mildly suspicious of.

What's missing is the number of recoveries -- in other words, how many now likely have some immunity or at least resistance to re-infection, and that's going to take a while to ferret out. What I'm using is a PDF that's issued once per day by the state which up until recently only stated the number of cumulative cases and deaths, but no rates. So I worked up a program to, once per day, download the PDF and attempt to extract at least the rate of new infections, which is where the above numbers come from. Recoveries might well be found by taking the rates of infections per day, waiting three weeks, subtracting the number of deaths, and that might yield something useful.

But, at least it looks like the UK has a bead on this damned thing -- and good!
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Coder »

crfriend wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:43 pm What's missing is the number of recoveries -- in other words, how many now likely have some immunity or at least resistance to re-infection, and that's going to take a while to ferret out.
Check into how they classify a recovery - in Michigan it was reported it just means:

"Recovered is defined as the number of persons with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis who are alive 30 days’ post-onset (or referral date if onset is not available)."

I suppose that is an OK indicator of recovery ("I'm not dead yet"), but I would have preferred two negative tests within a 24 hour period.
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Re: Corona Virus

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crfriend wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:43 pm Recoveries might well be found by taking the rates of infections per day, waiting three weeks, subtracting the number of deaths, and that might yield something useful.
The rate of infections per day is also useful on its own.  Because everyone who is infected either recovers or dies, they no longer form part of the infectable population.  Very crudely, when the total number becomes the same as the original population, everyone will be immune or dead and there will be no more infection -- so it is possible to calculate an absolute date beyond which the infection is bound to stop.

Obviously before that happens the rate of infection will begin to drop because the rate of transmission will fall as the infectable population is diluted by immune people.  If restrictions are gently eased, the rate of infection could be prevented from falling and 'herd immunity' would be achieved quicker at the expense of a continuing high death rate.  If the restrictions are kept in place and the infection rate allowed to fall naturally, 'herd immunity' will develop slower and the economy will have to be suppressed for longer -- however, an effective vaccine may become available during that extended time period.

Scylla  <<===============>>  Charybdis


[Correction to my previous post: The daily infection rate is fairly stable, it was the total that was rising linearly.]
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Re: Corona Virus

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Mark the day and time...

Moon Shadow actually agrees with Trumps justice department and a Mississippi church on this one...

https://www.wdbj7.com/content/news/Just ... 43821.html

The church did everything it was supposed to, they did not congregate in the church building, instead the pastor broadcast his sermon from inside across the radio to he congregation parked in their cars in the parking lot.

They were fined.

Complete bullsh!t!

Yes, I've been critical of certain churches obnoxiously defying guidelines and orders to not congregate in buildings where everyone is breathing the same air, but in this case, the church was trying to comply and yet still offer fellowship for their members.

You could be sitting at a traffic light and have the same risk of catching a bug as you would sitting in a parking lot.

Funny... the "authorities" don't seem to have an issue bottlenecking Walmart shoppers and making them wait in line in a parking lot to buy food.

No.. I'm not a religious person, and believe me, there is no love lost between myself and the evangelical community, but this church did nothing wrong!
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Re: Corona Virus

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Mike

Who the hell is 'society' anyway?
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Bikerkilt »

That was nice thanks for sharing.
pelmut
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmut »

For six days now the number of reported cases of C 19 in the U.K. hasn't risen; fingers crossed, the lockdown has worked so far.

A vaccine still seems a long way off, but there are several pharmaceuticals that look as though they have the potential to lower the number of fatalities among those admitted to hospital.  If we can't develop a vaccine quickly, an improved survival rate will eventually achieve a similar result by slower natural processes.
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Re: Corona Virus

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pelmut wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:03 pmFor six days now the number of reported cases of C 19 in the U.K. hasn't risen; fingers crossed, the lockdown has worked so far.
Does this mean that the rate of new infections has dropped to zero? If so, you may be quite close to a "return to normal" without external travel (an advantage to living on an island). If there are no new reports of infections, the virus will die out in the wild naturally and life can mostly resume in another three to four weeks' time.

We're nowhere near that here where I am where there were over 2,200 new (2,263 by the official count issued by Boston) cases reported just yesterday.
A vaccine still seems a long way off, but there are several pharmaceuticals that look as though they have the potential to lower the number of fatalities among those admitted to hospital.  If we can't develop a vaccine quickly, an improved survival rate will eventually achieve a similar result by slower natural processes.
My worry about any forthcoming vaccine here will be the cost of getting it, and the federal government has pretty much shown their hand on that matter with the "stimulus checques" they're sending out to the tune of $1,200 a pop to most everybody making less than $95,000 a year (which is most of the population). (Of course folks in that condition are paycheque-to-paycheque and have already spent that on necessities like food and housing.) I suspect most here are banking on the slower natural process than a "magic bullet".
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Big and Bashful »

My understanding is that they use something similar to a measure of criticality, a figure of 1 means that each person will infect 1 more person, so the infection rate has levelled off. If the "index" drops below 1, then the number of infected people is decreasing and the battle is being won. a figure of more than 1 would mean each person on average is infecting more than one and the number of infected people is increasing.
Not sure if they are converting the figure to a percentage (Given up watching the News, it was getting to me!), if they are, the same principle will still apply.
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