Fred, Dillon, and the others...

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Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby moonshadow » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:05 am

Looking at the current tracking of Florence, and realizing that Dillon doesn't really post anymore, still, it looks like the storm is going to slam directly where he lives... Fred, you're not too far off the mark....

Remember... tie some rocks on your skirts to hold them down! Not sure how they would fare in a 100+ MPH wind gust! :lol:

Seriously, ya'll stay safe down there...

As for me, I think I'm far enough inland that the wind should die down considerably. Depending on how it tracks, we'll either get nothing, or everything.... Some models are saying we might get 40-60mph gust and more than enough rain.

If it tracks north we get nothing and it becomes Carl and Jeff's problem.

Sunday, Jenn and I are heading to Ohio for a couple of weeks on business. Amber will be left behind, but I think she'll be okay. My primary concern is losing power and the basement flooding due to our sump pump shutting down, it can only rise about 2 feet before it would run out of the dug out doorway. I don't imagine it would get that deep, the house has been here for 70 years, and I'm sure it's seen worse rains and managed to survive. Outside of the basement however, we are nowhere near a stream, and we are in a "FEMA Floodzone X", which basically means there is almost a zero percent chance of flooding.

I don't reckon ya'll over on the coast have to worry about basements though....
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby Fred in Skirts » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:47 am

I am keeping track of the storm but do not believe we will get more than heavy breezes (35 to 50 MPH) and a lot of rain. As for flooding at the house my home is about 30 feet higher than the rest of the property and it is all sand so water sinks into the ground very fast.
To those who are in the direct path please take shelter before the storm arrives and be prepared to have food and water for at least 5 days and spare clothes as well.
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby moonshadow » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:08 am

That's good. My elevation right at the house is about 1700 feet and we also have the Clinch mountain range to the east so I don't suspect this land will ever see salt water! :lol:

I was just checking my weather app and though I expect it to change 50 times between now and then, Saturday the model was once 80% chance of rain, now its saying 20% and just cloudy with a chance of showers for the following 4 days....

Maybe the models are thinking it will turn?

At any rate I see its expected to make landfall in Wilmington N.C. That's pretty much a stones throw from Dillon. I'm sure he's in the process of evacuating. I have a flicker friend who so lives that way and his last flicker message was that him and his wife are evacuating today.
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby 6ft3Aussie » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:51 pm

Hopefully there is no threat to anyone on the board from the storm.

I'm also watching the progress of Typhoon Mangkhut which is to the east of the Philippines, and heading in a west to north westerly direction, straight towards about 50 million people.
If you only watched and listened to Western media, you would never hear about that one.
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby crfriend » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:36 am

6ft3Aussie wrote:Hopefully there is no threat to anyone on the board from the storm.

There are a few of us, past and present, who are going to be close to the impact area. The smart ones will already be battening down the hatches, and for the ones directly in the impact zone hopefully taking no chances.
I'm also watching the progress of Typhoon Mangkhut which is to the east of the Philippines, and heading in a west to north westerly direction, straight towards about 50 million people.

From ABS/CBN:
Super Typhoon Mangkhut was seen on Japanese satellite sensors Tuesday night as it made its approach towards northern Philippines where it is expected to hit Friday, September 14.

The tropical cyclone is currently packing maximum sustained winds of 259 kilometers per hour with gusts reaching almost 315 kph, according the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

All I can say about that is unprintable in polite company. That thing dwarfs everything in the Atlantic save for the most massive storms.

The IR (Infra-Red) image is likely from the Japanese Himiwari-8 bird that's in geosynchronous orbit over the western Pacific -- and which produces spectacular imagery. A sister imager was lofted into orbit last year and is now standing watch over the western Atlantic and currently has a view of three simultaneous cyclones.

But, damn, that one in the Pacific is one beast of a storm.
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby 6ft3Aussie » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:35 am

crfriend wrote: maximum sustained winds of 259 kilometers per hour with gusts reaching almost 315 kph, according the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

All I can say about that is unprintable in polite company. That thing dwarfs everything in the Atlantic save for the most massive storms.

The IR (Infra-Red) image is likely from the Japanese Himiwari-8 bird that's in geosynchronous orbit over the western Pacific -- and which produces spectacular imagery. A sister imager was lofted into orbit last year and is now standing watch over the western Atlantic and currently has a view of three simultaneous cyclones.

But, damn, that one in the Pacific is one beast of a storm.[/quote]

Yes, it certainly is, and not something to dismiss.
Back on November 8, 2013, Typhoon Yolanda nearly demolished my wife's hometown, Tacloban city, there were over 6500 people killed in that area when that storm smashed the area with sustained winds of 315kmh (for over 3 hours) and a 14 ft high storm surge.
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby Gusto10 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:20 am

www.windy.com gives a nice overview
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby moonshadow » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:25 pm

Gusto10 wrote:http://www.windy.com gives a nice overview



Cool!
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby Sinned » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:19 pm

It must pick up your location because I got a view of the British Isles.
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby Fred in Skirts » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:33 am

Well according to the weather idiots the storm will hit my area very hard with 40 to 50 MPH winds and 4 to 8 inches of rain. As for where I live in the boondocks the rain will not be a problem but the wind will. For sure I will lose power and as I live in a mobile home (double wide) there is a chance it will be torn about even though it is anchored down. :(
It looks like Friday through Monday will be the worst of it.
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby moonshadow » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:46 am

Fred in Skirts wrote:Well according to the weather idiots the storm will hit my area very hard with 40 to 50 MPH winds and 4 to 8 inches of rain. As for where I live in the boondocks the rain will not be a problem but the wind will. For sure I will lose power and as I live in a mobile home (double wide) there is a chance it will be torn about even though it is anchored down. :(


Oh no! I was thinking about you when I heard the path of the storm turned. Is there a shelter being set up for those who may be displaced?
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby crfriend » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:50 am

Fred in Skirts wrote:Well according to the weather idiots the storm will hit my area very hard with 40 to 50 MPH winds and 4 to 8 inches of rain.

Don't blame the forecasters as they're as much in the dark about what's going on as we are. These are not the old familiar times, we are now in a new regime.

It used to be that tropical Atlantic cyclones would follow a reasonably predictable path starting off moving west and then recurving off to the northeast with the occasional intersection with land. Take a look at what we've seen in the past five years -- cyclones moving is circles in the open ocean, ones going in the wrong direction entirely, ones that stall over one spot and deposit most of their entrained moisture thereupon. This is climate change, make no bones about it.

The computer models are fairly good, but they're only as accurate as historical data can make them -- and history doesn't seem to mean much any longer, either in a meteorological sense or even in a sociological sense. 'Tis a brave new world.

As for where I live in the boondocks the rain will not be a problem but the wind will. For sure I will lose power and as I live in a mobile home (double wide) there is a chance it will be torn about even though it is anchored down. :(

If it looks like it's going to get dire, I'd suggest getting out of Dodge and heading someplace else for a few days. Trying to lash stuff down when everything else is flying is the wrong time to be doing it.

Stay Safe!
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby Fred in Skirts » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:23 am

moonshadow wrote:Oh no! I was thinking about you when I heard the path of the storm turned. Is there a shelter being set up for those who may be displaced?

There are shelters being set up in schools around the area. But the problem with them is I have two dogs one being a very large German (shedding) Shepard. The shelters do not allow animals except service animals. If I have to leave my home I will go to my oldest daughters house and stay there. :(

Fred
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Re: Fred, Dillon, and the others...

Postby Gusto10 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:53 am

wish you luck
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