Corona Virus

[6ft3Aussie]

Here's another one.

Repost, and distribute as you please, just be aware though that I am not the producer of these, I hold no copyright, I'm just sharing material that is in the public domain.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1QhwKzCrOIY


Enjoy!

[beachlion]

Here's another one.

Repost, and distribute as you please, just be aware though that I am not the producer of these, I hold no copyright, I'm just sharing material that is in the public domain.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1QhwKzCrOIY


Enjoy!

I have seen those video's of empty shelves in stores before. If I remember correctly it was to show the western world the terrible state some communist countries were in or the effect of the ruling of dictators.

[crfriend]

I have seen those video's of empty shelves in stores before. If I remember correctly it was to show the western world the terrible state some communist countries were in or the effect of the ruling of dictators.

Isn't it remarkable that "what goes around comes around" describes things so perfectly? I'd posit that that's the rule, not the exception if one is patient enough to wait it out.

[moonshadow]

I have seen those video's of empty shelves in stores before. If I remember correctly it was to show the western world the terrible state some communist countries were in or the effect of the ruling of dictators.

Isn't it remarkable that "what goes around comes around" describes things so perfectly? I'd posit that that's the rule, not the exception if one is patient enough to wait it out.

Ooohhhh... see I debated on going there.... but I decided against it mainly because the circumstances are indeed different.

But on the other hand.... nah, I ain't beating that dead horse no more... it is what it is... I'm just along for the ride at this point.

[partlyscot]

General sarcasm and dire economic predictions aside, here's an interesting look at the current notion of "flattening the curve" and how to spread the damage out over time so the overall impact is diminished, at least from a critical health-care point of view: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... e=hs_email

Their model has some problems. One is that transmission is guaranteed from casual contact (transmission is never 100%), and another is that the current thing that's staring at us can kill who it infects, although at the moment it looks like those are a minority of the population. Note that I am not saying that won't be sad to lose grandma or grandpa to it, or some children -- far from; that will absolutely suck for all involved. However, from a population point of view, we ought to be alright. The key is damping the demand for intensive medical care for huge swathes of the population all at once.

Flattening this out is especially important in countries with underdeveloped, ineffective, or inaccessible health care.

Transmission is not always 100%, but it can be more. 1 infected person in a crowd can infect many.

Be that as it may, you are correct in that flattening the curve is critical. If the number of infected climbs too quickly, the patients that need serious support will outstrip the services available for them. If support is available, then most who are not elderly and/or compromised, will survive. If support is not available, many more will die. There simply isn't enough beds if this gets too big, too quickly. It has to be controlled now. One more week will be too late in those areas worst hit. It seems most hotspots are responding, but any area that doesn't get their act together will regret it.

[pelmut]

...flattening the curve is critical. If the number of infected climbs too quickly, the patients that need serious support will outstrip the services available for them.

That's the crux of the whole matter.  C 19 is no more deadly than many of the commoner viruses but it spreads faster; the number of people requiring hospitalisation is a tiny percentage of those infected, but the number of people who could all be infected at the same time, is potentially enormous.  

Hospital staff will also be affected, so hospitals will be under-staffed at the peak of the demand.  If the peak can be flattened out to last longer than a fortnight, it means that staff who have had the virus will be returning to work and there will be an ever-increasing pool of immune doctors and nurses who don't need as much protection.

[Sinned]

Let's put this virus thing in perspective as a mere flea on a flea in size. The Black Death killed, worldwide, estimates of between 75 and 200 million. Difficult to be accurate because of the lack of records. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 was estimated to have killed between 50 and 120 million worldwide. It makes the estimated few thousand for this pandemic seem a rather paltry amount. Now, don't get me wrong - every death is tragic, but aren't the authorities over-reacting on this? Or, forgive me for being paranoid in thinking that they're all out to get us, but couldn't this have all been orchestrated to produce the kind of economic freefalls that we are feeling? How best to get rid of the combines on the edge of bankruptcy? How best to clear out dead wood from the ranks of the employed? Maybe I'm getting to paranoid in my dotage?

[partlyscot]

Let's put this virus thing in perspective as a mere flea on a flea in size. The Black Death killed, worldwide, estimates of between 75 and 200 million. Difficult to be accurate because of the lack of records. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 was estimated to have killed between 50 and 120 million worldwide. It makes the estimated few thousand for this pandemic seem a rather paltry amount. Now, don't get me wrong - every death is tragic, but aren't the authorities over-reacting on this? Or, forgive me for being paranoid in thinking that they're all out to get us, but couldn't this have all been orchestrated to produce the kind of economic freefalls that we are feeling? How best to get rid of the combines on the edge of bankruptcy? How best to clear out dead wood from the ranks of the employed? Maybe I'm getting to paranoid in my dotage?

Yes, I think you are being paranoid. The 1918 flu killed something like 2.5% of the population in around 18 months. The world is far more connected these days, and the initial spread has therefore been faster. The death estimates for this pandemic, for the US alone, are as high as 2.2 million. While this figure assumes little to no attempt at isolation, the more optimistic numbers are in the hundreds of thousands. This does not include additional deaths due to the strain the hospitals will be experiencing. Further, the more harsh the attempts to isolate, the bigger the affect on the economy. We are now, in a recession, it going to get worse. I don't want to be too negative, but trying to say anything like "it's no big deal" is irresponsible. We should not panic, because that won't help, but we SHOULD continue to follow guidelines for minimizing the spread. For about 18 months, or until an effective vaccination is available.

The black death was worse, way worse. That 75-200 million die off was 30-60% of the world population. Can you imagine 1 out of 4 people dead? We should be grateful that this pandemic doesn't seem to be quite that bad.

[beachlion]

In the USA about a 100 persons die on a daily base from gun violence. I don't see much resolve to do something about it.
In the USA about a 100 persons die on a daily base in traffic, about 2 to 3 times more than in most developed countries. I don't see much resolve to do something about it.

Now we have the Corona virus on our hands and it seems that a human life has suddenly become more valued than a gun victim or a traffic victim.

I have trouble to see this in perspective.

[moonshadow]

All of that aside, it is what it is at this point.

The first thing we need to do is stay cool and consider our fellow men and women.

By all means, build a two or three week supply of provisions, but then ease off and give grocers a chance to catch up.

I've assembled enough good food for a fortnight, and we've probably always had enough basic food for a few months. Thus at this juncture I'm just maintaining the supply but not going overboard, rather simply replenishing what we use.

The girls and I are working very hard to waste nothing and make meals last two or three nights.

As for social, in my interactions at work, we wear gloves for everything now, avoid hand shakes and other such interactions, maintain six feet between other people, was hands very frequently.

I've refrained from using cash, wear gloves at gas pumps, and use cau6in public restrooms.

Just today I observed a young guy coughing and hacking all over before he grabbed a door handle and walked into a gas station...

Is it all an overreaction? Maybe, but this is the world we live in now. I'm fine to play by the rules and do my own little part to work towards putting this situation in the rear view mirror....

[Coder]

All of that aside, it is what it is at this point.

The first thing we need to do is stay cool and consider our fellow men and women.

By all means, build a two or three week supply of provisions, but then ease off and give grocers a chance to catch up.

I've assembled enough good food for a fortnight, and we've probably always had enough basic food for a few months. Thus at this juncture I'm just maintaining the supply but not going overboard, rather simply replenishing what we use.

The girls and I are working very hard to waste nothing and make meals last two or three nights.

As for social, in my interactions at work, we wear gloves for everything now, avoid hand shakes and other such interactions, maintain six feet between other people, was hands very frequently.

I've refrained from using cash, wear gloves at gas pumps, and use cau6in public restrooms.

Just today I observed a young guy coughing and hacking all over before he grabbed a door handle and walked into a gas station...

Is it all an overreaction? Maybe, but this is the world we live in now. I'm fine to play by the rules and do my own little part to work towards putting this situation in the rear view mirror....

Pretty much what we are doing - except with very little need to go out we are all cooped up together at home, and trying to see how far we can go without making a trip to the store. Went to a nature preserve the other day, might repeat on nicer days. Currently weighing pros/cons of going to Costco to get through another week with "fresh" ingredients (vs what we have stocked up).

[Big and Bashful]

Have a look at this, it might put a smile on your face, I think we need that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0EBIZahkig

[moonshadow]

Went to a nature preserve the other day, might repeat on nicer days. Currently weighing pros/cons of going to Costco to get through

That's not a bad idea. I've been considering taking a mountain walk with this nice weather. Even during good times there is plenty of room to roam.

I think being around nature would be really good for the soul, and safe too as the elderly typically aren't scaling mountain sides. Just remember to pack a lunch!

[crfriend]

I think being around nature would be really good for the soul, and safe too as the elderly typically aren't scaling mountain sides. Just remember to pack a lunch!

Being out of doors is perfectly safe -- and is actually good for the mind, body, and soul -- as long as you don't run into close contact with other people, "close being about 2 metres. I've been out walking a couple of times this week -- when the weather has cooperated; right now the place resembles Ireland -- and one time when it was nice ran into, and chatted with walker from across the street, another walker. The general consensus is that it's better to be outside in the sun than in a box somewhere.

The "work from home" bit is bothersome,though. Without powerful mental restraint, and a strong ability to say, NO!" to the boss, I've found myself working positively insane shifts, and the change in mental and physical status is already apparent. Tuesday was a mild day, I only worked 9 hours; Wednesday was insane at 14; and yesterday almost as bad at 12 -- all of it with unrelenting interruptions and stress, causing nothing to get done. I'd been hoping to get some stuff done that's complex, requires a lot of design and engineering, and which hasn't gotten done in literally years. Well, that ain't going to happen... It is impossible to do good design work when you can't get more than five minutes without a distraction or a meeting. Meetings, of course, are scheduled for when they'll be most disruptive.

Yup, my little startup has caught Corporate Virus. This is usually fatal -- and not quickly enough so it stands out as the cause. It's more like drowning in one's own condensed breath or the long drawn-out slide to oblivion from dementia.

[Coder]

The "work from home" bit is bothersome,though. Without powerful mental restraint, and a strong ability to say, NO!" to the boss, I've found myself working positively insane shifts, and the change in mental and physical status is already apparent. Tuesday was a mild day, I only worked 9 hours; Wednesday was insane at 14; and yesterday almost as bad at 12 -- all of it with unrelenting interruptions and stress, causing nothing to get done. I'd been hoping to get some stuff done that's complex, requires a lot of design and engineering, and which hasn't gotten done in literally years. Well, that ain't going to happen... It is impossible to do good design work when you can't get more than five minutes without a distraction or a meeting. Meetings, of course, are scheduled for when they'll be most disruptive.

Same here! I’ve worked close to 15 hour shifts every day, punctuated with the brief lunch then “oh, could you help me with this”. I vow to make next week more normal - this is just an outlier.