Different news Scotland and England

[Sinned]

Sorry skrtngtdy but the headline I saw in my Daily Mail was the left one. Admittedly I live in the north of England but I am still over a 100 miles from the Scottish boarder. Was the right one front page or an article inside the paper?

[skirtingtoday]

Sinned, My mistake - it wasn't the front page news story but an article (possibly) within the paper. The article was (and still is) available on-line here:- http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/artic ... think.html.

At least the newspaper to its credit, states that it disagrees with the article - though they don't say whether it was one sentence or the whole article or something in-between. A clarification on that would be useful but unlikely to be forthcoming. My personal view is that his opinion has considerable inaccuracies. A couple are noted below.

At least the "Subsidy Junkie" rumour was answered in the comments below the line.

And on the EU membership, read this (from the Honorary DG of the European Commission) which seems well reasoned and thought out:-
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... 43/m05.htm ie by "mutatis mutandis" -> by changing only the things that need to be changed.


And Grok, DEVO-MAX was discussed several years ago, and indeed if a referendum had been carried out then, may well have happened. However, two years is a long time in politics and that option has been watered down quite significantly and would be a non-starter today. MOH was a DEVO-MAX supporter and would have voted NO in the referendum at that time then but she is now a firm YES.

[Milfmog]

It is possible to argue that what Salmod is after IS devo-max. After all he seems to be frightened of the idea of true independence, which would include a Scottish currency instead of hanging on the shirt tails of the southern neighbour...

Have fun,


Ian.

[Sinned]

To me there are too many unresolved issues for anyone to make a logical reasoned decision. It's all right Alex Salmon-Salad saying whatever he likes about currency, EU, the NHS and other things but a lot of the things he's saying depend upon the decisions of others over which he has little to no control. Take the EU - he's just assuming that he can just automatically gain membership or will already be a member and that's certainly not the case. Indications are that Scotland as a seceding country would not be a member and it would be difficult, if not impossible, for Scotland to join. Here the decision depends upon all the other EU countries and persuading them will be a tall order. Currency he just assumes that England will just roll over and capitulate, but the decision isn't his to make. I suspect he will need all his oratory powers in the years to come. And a lot more creepy crawlies will come out of the woodwork before this is all through.

And before anybody accuses me of being a No supporter - I ain't - I'm on the fence with this one. In some ways I hope the vote is Yes in which case I wish Scotland the best wishes in making things succeed. I do think that it would be a shame to split up the Union but if that's what they want then we'll all have to muddle through and live with the consequences. We'll all know shortly and I still think that the closeness of the vote is the worst scenario.

[Grok]

The UK is beginning to look like a Federacy

[dillon]

I wonder how a win for Scotland's secession might affect the popularity in the UK for leaving the EU?

[Sinned]

TBH if the vote is No and negotiations for devo-max are undertaken and prove as extensive as has been intimated then they may just as well go independent. The powers ceded to them would probably arouse so much antagonism in the rest of the disUnited Kingdom that the position wouldn't last for very long anyway. The extra per capita for Scottish residents, free prescriptions and University schooling ( examples ) are already irritants. So maybe it would be better for a Yes vote. A very close No vote would probably only bring calls for another vote in say 5 years time, although I just have a feeling that that's just what will happen.

Maybe cut Salmond loose and see how much of his rhetoric matches reality. I suspect that if it doesn't then his changed tack will not match what he said in the past. George Orwell's 1984 was a brilliant novel, especially about changing the past to match its current vision. Denial happens so much that I don't think that we take much notice any more. What a mess and I can't help thinking that whatever the result there will be no winners.

[Big and Bashful]

If the vote is a Yes, and if the prophecies of Doom turn out to be correct and Scotland isn't financially viable on it's own, then what?

Once Scotland is independant, I presume the subsidies like the Barnett formula will stop as the rest of the UK will cease having to pour money into an independant Scotland. If the sums don't add up, what can Scotland do then? Raise tax levels until those who can't afford to live in Scotland have to relocate, taking their income with them?
Alex says that the money saved from Trident will help fund Scotland, hang on a cotton picking minute! the money from Trident comes from Westminster via the Ministry of Defence, so that is currently money flowing into the Clyde area from England, if Trident moves away to England, so does the work, so does that flow of money, so how does that help Scotland's bank balance? Hollyrood won't see any of that money, just more unemployed looking for handouts. He will have a Naval base, no ships though, don't they belong to Queenies's Royal Navy?

[RichardA]

To me it looks like it is getting very dirty between the no and the yes voters, there could be blood on the streets before Thursday, I hope not.

[Grok]

Came across mention of "Devo Plus". www.devoplus.com

[Sinned]

I suspect that the referendum is too close to put together any document worth it salt defining what powers and functions will be devolved in the event of a No vote. It would also be difficult to ensure the knee-jerk promises like those made by Gordie Brown would be implemented and one could imagine the arguments that would ensue. It has been pointed out that if full budget responsibilities were devolved it would bar those Scottish MPs from voting on English budgets. But hey, if Labour get in in next year's General Election with a tiny majority as has been posited then in effect Labour would find it impossible to get its budget voted through since they would then not have a majority without the Scottish MPs. There really is no answer to this. There are now lots of examples coming out of the woodwork that present virtually impossible problems - defence, security, economics, political alliances etc. This Union is appearing more like a very long marriage and splitting up the relationship and the assets will be much more painful and make the division of assets from even the most vitriolic marriage seem like a storm in a teacup. I don't like to read the papers any more as the political analysts raise more and more problems!

I don't think anyone knows the answer to your questions B&B on financial viability. Has any country gone bankrupt in living memory? Yes Greece, Portugal et al have been through a painful time but they have had EU membership to get them through ( although whether that has been an advantage or a millstone depends on your viewpoint ). Being outside the EU then there would only be the World Bank to effect rescue and goodness knows what conditions they would impose for a bailout! And yes presumably from the date of secession all subsidies from Parliament would cease and you would be on your own. Scary!

If you are employed in work associated with the shipyards then you need to be worried B&B as not only would the Trident work be lost but you could forget about any naval contracts either. With indications of major financial concerns moving south and everyone and his dog positing price increases for implementing logistic changes for a spread out population then things don't look good. What happens if the island groups around Scotland vote to stay in the Union and Scotland votes to exit stage left? Has anyone thought about that?

Hhhhhhhheeeeeeeellllllllpppppppp!!!!!!!!

[crfriend]

Has any country gone bankrupt in living memory?

To all intents and purposes both the United States and the USSR both went bankrupt in the 1980s. The United States was able to "stay afloat" (barely) by borrowing obscenely heavily and the USSR wasn't able to. Both nations failed catastrophically, albeit the USSR ever so slightly more than the US.

The vultures are coming home to roost in the USA as I write this, and the outlook is not a pretty one. Russia shows the way that the US will (has) go (gone already), so it's a useful object lesson for what happens when countries, especially super-powers, go bust.

If Scotland can wrest control of its oil reserves, then it stands a chance. Nations need to be able to sell goods and produce to other nations in order to survive and prosper; the day of "being an island" is over -- we're all too interlocked now. And becoming tourist-dependent does not cut the mustard.

I truly hope that very, very, level heads have analyzed all the possibilities and discounted hype and FUD from their calculations.

[Brad]

Perhaps you folks from across the pond can explain something to an American. How is it that Scotland is being allowed to decide its pursuit of independence but Ireland is not given that option? What is the difference?

[Big and Bashful]

Good question Brad,
I reckon (I'm certainly no expert!) that Ireland is a very different problem, just look at the way Ireland has split itself up into the Republic and Northern Ireland. It already has an independant part and a pro UK part who want to stay.
Wales seems to have a different outlook, apart from being small compared to Scotland, they don't seem to have the same Nationalist activists, or maybe I just haven't seen them because I live in Scotlandshire!

[dillon]

I also wonder if some Scots are looking at the social welfare state of Norway and thinking Scotland should do the same with oil revenue. The petroleum issue will be interesting to watch as the divergence of different interests within Scotland come into play.