Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Postby trainspotter48 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:35 pm

i believe it's known as being between a rock and a hard place.

I leave it to other readers to determine whether the preservatives or the EU represents the rock.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Grok » Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:45 am

Peter Zeihan discusses the collapse of the global trading system.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFjr-Q1qi-g
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Re: Brexit

Postby Grok » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:15 pm

Don't recall title nor author, I once came across a book in the public library that discussed the (then theoretical) collapse of the global trading system.

There were several stages in a government's reaction to this collapse:

1. It sinks in that the collapse is for real. Panic among the top political leadership.

2. The top leadership decides that they will do whatever they must to save their country's economy. They decide that they will abandon any inconvenient rules of the global system.

3. The government scrambles to make bilateral deals with whichever country has crucial resources.


Number 2 results in the termination of the World Trade Organization.

Number 3 resembles Britain's search for trade deals in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. But with multiple governments searching at the same time-and those governments will be desperate.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Gusto10 » Mon May 27, 2019 11:37 am

The EU Elections took place. EU critical parties in amongst others the UK, France and Italy gained strongly. In the UK Nigel Farange new Brexit party became No. 1. Perhaps this election could be considered a good alternative for a referendum.

The number of persons now wanting to become the occupant of Downingstreet 10, all wanting to be Mr or Mrs Brexit, is maybe an indication why it wasn't realised yet.
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Re: Brexit

Postby FranTastic444 » Mon May 27, 2019 1:01 pm

The big winners in the UK European elections were those parties that have an unambiguous position on Brexit. The new Brexit party took 32% of the vote, but Lib Dems + Greens = 32% (should we also add in the SNP?). Change UK + UKIP have exactly the same vote (3.4%) so cancel each other out. This leaves Labour and the Tories languishing on 14% and 9% respectively.

So I don't think that the Brexit party vote percentage is evidence that the UK populace has sent a strong pro-Brexit message at the ballot box given that just as many people voted for anti-Brexit parties - though this hasn't stopped Farage from demanding a seat at the Brexit negotiating table.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Ray » Mon May 27, 2019 6:46 pm

You absolutely have to include the SNP. They campaigned on a strong Remain platform. You also have to include UKIP in the Leave vote, and Change in the Remain vote (Edit: just seen your comment on this)

It’s dangerous to draw conclusions from this. It’s certainly not a proxy for a 2nd Referendum vote. Turnout is c50% which is too little to give an accurate picture of the country (along with Labour and Conservative being a blend of the two sides).

The only conclusion I can come up with is that the UK - and especially England - is deeply divided.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Ray » Mon May 27, 2019 6:55 pm

Some numbers.

Leave oriented - Brexit party (31.6%), UKIP (3.3%) = 34.9%

Remain oriented - LibDems (20.3%), Green (12.1%), SNP (3.6%), Change (3.4%), Plaid Cymru (1.0%) = 40.4%.

As I said, the above is not a proxy for a second referendum. Labour and Tory excluded as they are split (we don’t know to what extent).

(Edited for a 0.1 uptick for SNP now that all regions are declared)
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Re: Brexit

Postby FranTastic444 » Tue May 28, 2019 1:12 am

Hi Ray

The reason for me omitting SNP and Plaid was that they are not national parties - adding them in actually shows even more strongly that there wasn't an overwhelming vote for Brexit-leaning parties. Reading up some more today, I was surprised to hear that the Brexit party vote is only 4% more than UKIP last time out - I thought they had taken more votes than that from the two main parties.

I totally agree that the results should not be seen as a proxy for a referendum and any politician (such as Farage) who draws conclusions about the mood of the populace as a whole regarding Brexit based upon the latest election is an idiot in my mind. This reminds me of a political cartoon that appeared in the Times after the recent local elections (I think it applies equally to the Euro elections).

Image

I think the Tories now have to go for a hard / no-deal Brexit to fend off the Brexit party. Problem is, votes in the Commons have shown overwhelmingly that this is a position that MP's do not support. Could we really see the crazy situation of Boris being crowned PM and then a few days later losing a motion of no confidence (which by that stage will be the only mechanism that MP's will have to stop a no deal Brexit)?
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Re: Brexit

Postby Ray » Tue May 28, 2019 5:49 am

Your theory is - I think - a sound one. It does sound farcical but it’s plausible.

I included SNP and PC because they have to be brought in on a national vote (despite not having national representation), otherwise what you end up with is - broadly - England’s results, and that does not make sense in a UK context.

Interesting to see what happens next...

(Carl, please don’t lock this. It’s not incendiary in the slightest)
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Re: Brexit

Postby crfriend » Tue May 28, 2019 9:26 am

Ray wrote:(Carl, please don’t lock this. It’s not incendiary in the slightest)

Being the eternal optimist when it comes to my hopes for humanity and civil behaviour I wasn't about to. It seems that the Brits (and ex-pats) seem to know how to behave rather more than the Yanks across the pond.

But any time I see one of these razor-edged splits my heart does seem to get saddened as no matter who "wins", likely everybody will lose in the long run.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Stevie D » Tue May 28, 2019 9:53 am

crfriend wrote:But any time I see one of these razor-edged splits my heart does seem to get saddened as no matter who "wins", likely everybody will lose in the long run.

Agreed! Which is why holding the leave/remain in the EU referendum in the first place was such an ill-conceived idea. It was plain to many people beforehand that it was going to be hugely devisive and bitter. And so it has proved.
It is a Pandora's box which should never have been opened. But I can't see a sensible and healing way forward. :(
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Re: Brexit

Postby Sinned » Tue May 28, 2019 2:01 pm

One thing that occurred to me last night. Perhaps the Europeans have already written us off as members - they are only waiting for what we decide to do and laughing behind out backs at our shenanegans. As for the Remainders, suppose that they get their way and we vote again to stay, what would the reaction be of the other countries? Perhaps we have blown any influence we could hope to have now over European affairs ( assuming we had any before ). It's possible that they may insist on us subscribing to more of their integrationist policies such as the Euor, political integration, the European Army .... Assuming that you are a member of a club and have made a fuss about wanting out only to change your mind at the last minute. How would the others treat you? May they want more from you that you gave before?

Let's face it the country is completely split about this and the politicians are not helping as they are being asked to exit when most of them really wanted to stay.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Fred in Skirts » Tue May 28, 2019 4:58 pm

Sinned wrote:Let's face it the country is completely split about this and the politicians are not helping as they are being asked to exit when most of them really wanted to stay.

And who do the politicians work for???

Do they work for the EU or the people of Great Briton??

And another question what does being a member give you and is it worth losing your national identity for??
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Re: Brexit

Postby Gusto10 » Tue May 28, 2019 7:42 pm

Fred in Skirts wrote:
Sinned wrote:Let's face it the country is completely split about this and the politicians are not helping as they are being asked to exit when most of them really wanted to stay.

And who do the politicians work for???

Do they work for the EU or the people of Great Briton??

And another question what does being a member give you and is it worth losing your national identity for??

Politicians work for the taxpayer. Hence they should represent the taxpayer. But such is not the case. As I heard civil servants say, the public doesn't understand a ... as to what is happening.


bearing in mind the quetion what is better, the existing deal or no deal brexit or no brexit. In my humble opinion, both the no-deal and the no-brexit will put the UK in a weaker position than the T May deal.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Gusto10 » Tue May 28, 2019 7:53 pm

Another question as to the origin of the idea "Brexit". Where did it come from, just the unhappiness with Brussels or more? Bearing in mind what B Johnson wrote on W. Churchhill, he would have envisaged a continental United Europe and a Stand Alone UK. same as the thoughts during the Vienna conference of 1813-1815, during which it was also ordained that the Netherlands should become a kingdom to remain sovereign. Hence, is history catching up with us?
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