Independence poll

[skirtingtoday]

I was on holiday last week and on returning yesterday, I noticed couple of new opintion polls on Scotland's Independence.

Here is an informed report in the Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ound-polls It is taken from a Scottish Sunday newspaper. It is also clear that "Project Fear" organised by Westminster isn't working...

Try as I might I don't see the poll reported on the BBC website within their own search engine. (try searching for "Scotland Independence Poll" there and you'll see what I mean.)

Balanced impartial reporting? The BBC? Not any longer methinks!

One thing is clear though, is that for considering only eligible Scottish voters, the case is already for a YES vote but when the eligible English voters (living here) are included, and rightly allowed to vote on this issue, the scale tips marginally into the NO end of the spectrum. It is also clear that a very small swing (2%) will secure the YES vote for independence taking all votes into account.

Not worthy of news?

[crfriend]

One thing is clear though, is that for considering only eligible Scottish voters, the case is already for a YES vote but when the eligible English voters (living here) are included, and rightly allowed to vote on this issue, the scale tips marginally into the NO end of the spectrum. It is also clear that a very small swing (2%) will secure the YES vote for independence taking all votes into account.

It's precisely situations like that -- where a tiny minority can throw things -- that terrify me, as that's what we've been dealing with here in the US since the 1980s. No matter what happens in the Scottish situation, I wish Scotland and England the best and hope that they can be amicable neighbours.

The thing that scares me about no-clear-mandate situations is that those give rise to a lot of tension within the electorate, and frequently disastrous results in the big picture. The situation also allows splinter- and various pressure-groups greater-than-normal (or right) power to swing things their way.

FUD ("Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt") is a powerful tool in a lot of situations -- and it's frequently a tool used by the ones least qualified to use it, or at least the ones that do not hold the ethical high ground.

Not worthy of news?

Worthy of news, indeed, and it's something that at least I am following, albeit from a distance.

[skirtingtoday]

I am hoping that the final vote is clear and that there will not be a "no-clear" result. All recent opinion polls are shown on the graph below:-

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions ... try-1#line

(I have deleted the "don't knows" but they can be inserted again from the link on that page. The "don't knows" seem to be virtually unchanged from a year ago)

As you can see one year ago the NO campaign was at 63% and the YES at 37% whereas now it is much closer at 52% YES and 48% NO. I believe this trend will continue, as there seems to be a lot of negative issues portrayed as "facts" (part truths, fact distortions, part information but not the complete story) similar to your FUD campaigns which basically are getting up peoples noses that the Scottish people voting YES will likely continue to increase.

[RichardA]

It would make William Wallace a very happy man if it got the yes vote

[Sinned]

The problem with very close votes like this seems to be destined to turn out to be is that there is too much encouragement for the losing side to demand a second go. Extra uncertainty and doubt which is very much what is NOT wanted. Not sure if the recent declarations are scare tactics or just telling it like it will be for certain aspects. For instance if the Treasury say no to Scotland keeping the pound then there's not a lot that Scotland can do to force the issue but to form their own currency. The results from that are not easily foreseen - only more doubt again. Whether firms will put their money where their mouth is and move out is something for them to decide on an individual basis. As for Europe, will Spain, Italy et al vote to keep Scotland out - possibly because they have their own little fiefdoms itching to reach for independence but there again will Scotland WANT to get into Europe? Questions, questions. FYI I don't really have an opinion on this as I am English and family history research has shown that we have some links into Scotland but nothing recent.

[Grok]

I've noticed that there are web sites discussing federalism for the UK. I don't suppose that is an option that has been offered to voters.

[Big and Bashful]

Federalism? I will need to look that one up, it sounds very suspicious to me, maybe I am wrong but isn't federalism a nit like what Europe is trying to do? if so I want none of it! however I will look up what it actually means before commenting further.

[Big and Bashful]

Found an article, started reading, lost the will to live.

[Grok]

I have come across the term "federal" in reference to the European Union. However, more and more observers are commenting that the EU has begun to resemble the Holy Roman Empire.

[john62]

Here in Australia we have a Federal system with three layers of government for 23 million people !, there is the Federal level, then the State level and finally the shire level, the biggest problem is who pays for what therefore all three levels keep on passing the buck and a lot of time is spent arguing over who is responsible and nothing gets done. And of course the Head of State is a representative of the Queen of Britain, go figure.

John

[skirtingtoday]

I've noticed that there are web sites discussing federalism for the UK. I don't suppose that is an option that has been offered to voters.

Grok,
No form of Fedaralism is being offered at this time. Indeed, the very option of a "Second Question" on Independence along the lines of, "Does Scotland wish more devolved powers from Westminster if full Independence is voted for" was firmly quashed - by Westminster!

Perhaps some form of Federalism will be the final outcome with more devolved powers (Called "Devo-Max" here) for which I believe a lot of the population will be happy/OK with. But with the opinion polls showing a very close margin between Yes and NO, perhaps the question won't arise as only a very small "swing" (2%) to the Yes camp will secure the mandate needed for full independence.

I could talk a lot more on what forms those additional powers might be but they haven't been agreed: there is only the possibility that they would be discussed which is not very satisfactory and even then, the powers that could be allocated, does not really involve additional powers, only more accountability when you read the fine print!

[Kirbstone]

We may gripe about numbskulls running various levels of administration or government, but at least, almost 100 years on, you Scots have an atmosphere in which what happens on the independence front will be the result of a civilised ballot. and any subsequent ill feeling will be expressed verbally.

My father was a medical student in Dublin right through the Irish independence war and subsequent civil war in the twenties and it wasn't much fun at the time, in fact downright frightening. At least in this neck-o'-the-woods, thankfully all that sort of thing is now history.

Tom

[Grok]

If I recall correctly, "Devo-max" for Ireland was referred to as "home rule."

[Grok]

I have noticed that there is now talk of English nationalism, and of an English parliaments. I have even come across reference to nationalism in Cornwall, and devolution there.

[Sinned]

There has been talk of a Yorkshire parliament too. Bring it on!!!! York used to be the second capital after London at one stage.